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Thursday, September 05, 2019

Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears

The Bears are favored to win based on simulations and the current odds. The projected score is Bears 25 and Packers 19, with Chicago winning 61% of the time. At -200 on the moneyline, the Bears implied probability to win is 67 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. They both have one win head-to-head in recent seasons. In these games the Bears averaged 47 points per game and the Packers 27. The projection based point spread is CHI -6. Bettors seem to be favoring the Bears as the Vegas line has moved from -3.5 to -4. The Bears have a record of 9-4-0 as a favorite. The Packers have a record of 2-4-1 as an underdog. The Bears have the ATS edge head to head going 2-0-0 vs the Packers. The average point spread in these games was Packers -0.3 but the Bears won by an average of 19.7 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Green Bay Packers4621.019.136%37%27.3 (1 Win)
Chicago Bears-4.025.024.964%61%47.0 (1 Win)

VEGAS is the expected score based on the point spread and over/under, PROJ is the average score from computer simulations, ML% is the implied probability of the money lines adjusted for the juice, SIM% is the percentage of simulations each team won, PAST H2H is the average score from recent head to head matchups

Visit Sportsline to get the latest lines, updated projections, best values, and picks from some of the top Vegas handicappers. We also have the best player projections for Season Long and Daily Fantasy players.

Sunday, September 08, 2019

Los Angeles Rams vs Carolina Panthers

The odds favor the Rams, and the sims are solidly on the Rams as well. The projected score is Rams 29 and Panthers 26, with Los Angeles winning 58% of the latest sims. At -147 on the moneyline, the Rams implied probability to win is 60 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The projection based point spread is LAR -3.5. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening CAR +3. The Rams have a record of 8-7-2 as a favorite. The Panthers have a record of 4-3-0 as an underdog. The Rams are 5-5-0 ATS on the road since last season. The Panthers were 5-3-0 ATS at home last season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Los Angeles Rams5127.029.057%58%--
Carolina Panthers+3.024.025.643%42%--

Washington Redskins vs Philadelphia Eagles

Both the simulations and the betting lines are on the Eagles to win the game. The projected score is Eagles 25 and Redskins 19, and Philadelphia is winning 64% of simulations. At -435 on the moneyline, the Eagles implied probability to win is 81 percent. People are betting more heavily on the Eagles based on how the moneyline is moving. The Eagles have the recent head-to-head edge going 2-0. In these games the Eagles averaged 52 points per game and the Redskins 13. The projection based point spread is PHI -6.5. Bettors seem to be favoring the Eagles as the Vegas line has moved from -8 to -9. The Eagles have a record of 4-7-1 as a favorite. The Redskins have a record of 8-5-0 as an underdog. They have the same ATS records as they do straight up head-to-head. The Eagles are 2-0-0 against the spread vs the Redskins. The Eagles were favored by an average of -5.8 points in these games and they won by an average of 39 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Washington Redskins46.518.818.622%35%13.0 (0 Wins)
Philadelphia Eagles-9.027.725.378%64%52.0 (2 Wins)

Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets

The Jets are favored to win based on simulations and the current odds. The projected score is Jets 23 and Bills 18, with New York winning 63% of the time. At -180 on the moneyline, the Jets implied probability to win is 64 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. They both have one win head-to-head in recent seasons. In these games, the Bills averaged 43 and the Jets 37 ppg. The computer would set the spread at NYJ -5. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening -3.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Jets are 1-2-0. As an underdog, the Bills are 6-7-0. Their straight up head-to-head record is the same as their ATS records. Both have covered the spread once head-to-head. The Jets were favored by an average of -1.2 points in these games but the Bills won by an average of 5.7 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Buffalo Bills38.517.517.538%37%42.7 (1 Win)
New York Jets-3.521.022.662%63%37.0 (1 Win)

Atlanta Falcons vs Minnesota Vikings

Both the simulations and the betting lines are on the Vikings to win the game, and home field advantage is a big reason why. The projected score is Vikings 25 and Falcons 22, and Minnesota is winning 59% of the sims. At -200 on the moneyline, the Vikings implied probability to win is 67 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The projection based point spread is MIN -3.5. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening -4. The Vikings have a record of 6-3-1 as a favorite. The Falcons have a record of 1-3-0 as an underdog. The Falcons are 2-6-0 ATS on the road since last season. The Vikings were 4-3-1 ATS at home last season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Atlanta Falcons47.521.821.636%41%--
Minnesota Vikings-4.025.725.364%59%--

Baltimore Ravens vs Miami Dolphins

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the Ravens to win the game despite being on the road. The projected score is Ravens 25 and Dolphins 16, and Baltimore is winning 71% of simulations. At -197 on the moneyline, the Ravens implied probability to win is 66 percent. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The projection based point spread is BAL -9.5. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening MIA +4. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Ravens are 4-9-0. As an underdog, the Dolphins are 4-7-0. The Ravens are 5-3-0 ATS on the road since last season. The Dolphins were 6-2-0 ATS at home last season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Baltimore Ravens3720.525.164%71%--
Miami Dolphins+4.016.515.636%28%--

Kansas City Chiefs vs Jacksonville Jaguars

The Chiefs are favored to win based on simulations and the current odds despite being on the road. The projected score is Chiefs 27 and Jaguars 22, with Kansas City winning 61% of the latest sims. At -220 on the moneyline, the Chiefs implied probability to win is 69 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. Head-to-head, the Chiefs are 1-0. In these games, the Chiefs averaged 30 and the Jaguars 28 ppg. The computer would set the spread at KC -5. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening JAC +4.5. The Chiefs have a record of 7-6-0 as a favorite. The Jaguars have a record of 3-4-2 as an underdog. Their straight up head-to-head record is the same as their ATS records. The Chiefs have the ATS edge head to head going 1-0-0 vs the Jaguars. The average point spread in these games was Chiefs -1.5 and they won by an average of 2 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Kansas City Chiefs5228.227.166%61%30.0 (1 Win)
Jacksonville Jaguars+4.523.822.034%38%28.0 (0 Wins)

Tennessee Titans vs Cleveland Browns

The Browns are favored to win based on simulations and the current odds. The projected score is Browns 25 and Titans 18, and Cleveland is winning 65% of simulations. The moneyline for the Browns is -244 which translates to 71 percent (chance of winning). The moneyline has moved from its opening value which indicates people are wagering more money on the Browns to win. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The computer would set the spread at CLE -7. More of the action seems to be on the Browns with the Vegas line moving from -5 to -5.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Browns are 1-2-0. As an underdog, the Titans are 6-4-0. The Titans are 4-4-0 ATS on the road since last season. The Browns were 5-3-0 ATS at home last season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Tennessee Titans45.520.017.932%34%--
Cleveland Browns-5.525.525.068%65%--

Cincinnati Bengals vs Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks are solidly favored to win based on simulations and the current odds. The projected score is Seahawks 28 and Bengals 18, and Seattle is winning 73% of the sims. The moneyline for the Seahawks is -400 which translates to 80 percent (chance of winning). The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The projection based point spread is SEA -10. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening -8. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Seahawks are 4-3-1. As an underdog, the Bengals are 6-4-0. The Bengals are 6-2-0 ATS on the road since last season. The Seahawks were 5-2-1 ATS at home last season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Cincinnati Bengals43.517.818.523%27%--
Seattle Seahawks-8.025.728.477%73%--

Indianapolis Colts vs Los Angeles Chargers

The odds favor the Chargers, and the sims are solidly on the Chargers as well. The projected score is Chargers 26 and Colts 21, and Los Angeles is winning 59% of simulations. The Chargers are -164 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 62 percent. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The computer would set the spread at LAC -4.5. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening -3. The Chargers have a record of 5-6-0 as a favorite. The Colts have a record of 4-5-0 as an underdog. The Colts are 6-4-0 ATS on the road since last season. The Chargers were 2-5-0 ATS at home last season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Indianapolis Colts47.522.221.341%40%--
Los Angeles Chargers-3.025.325.859%59%--

San Francisco 49ers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The odds favor the Buccaneers, and the sims are solidly on the Buccaneers as well. The projected score is Buccaneers 27 and 49ers 26, with Tampa Bay winning 54% of the time. The moneyline for the Buccaneers is -120 which translates to 55 percent (chance of winning). The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. Tampa Bay won their lone matchup in recent seasons 54 to 18. The computer would set the spread at TB -1.5. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening -1. The Buccaneers have a record of 1-3-0 as a favorite. The 49ers have a record of 5-7-0 as an underdog. In their last match-up (TB won by 36) Tampa Bay covered the spread. The Buccaneers were -2 favorites.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
San Francisco 49ers4924.025.748%45%18.0 (0 Wins)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers-1.025.027.252%54%54.0 (1 Win)

New York Giants vs Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys are solidly favored to win based on simulations and the current odds. The projected score is Cowboys 26 and Giants 18, and Dallas is winning 68% of simulations. At -344 on the moneyline, the Cowboys implied probability to win is 77 percent. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. The Cowboys have the recent head-to-head edge going 2-0. In these games the Cowboys averaged 56 points per game and the Giants 48. The projection based point spread is DAL -8. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening -7.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Cowboys are 3-3-2. As an underdog, the Giants are 7-6-0. Their straight up head-to-head record is the same as their ATS records. The Cowboys are 2-0-0 against the spread vs the Giants. The average point spread in these games was Giants -2.2 but the Cowboys won by an average of 8 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
New York Giants46.519.517.825%32%48.0 (0 Wins)
Dallas Cowboys-7.527.025.775%68%56.0 (2 Wins)

Detroit Lions vs Arizona Cardinals

The simulations have this as an even matchup, while the Vegas odds favor the Lions. The projected score is Lions 23 and Cardinals 22, and Detroit is winning 54% of simulations. The Lions are -120 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 55 percent. Bettors seem to be favoring the Lions since the moneyline is moving in their 'direction'. In their last 2 matchups the Lions are 1-0. In these games, the Lions averaged 17 and the Cardinals 6 ppg. The computer would set the spread at DET -1.5. The Lions have a record of 3-2-0 as a favorite. The Cardinals have a record of 7-6-1 as an underdog. They have the same ATS records as they do straight up head-to-head. The Lions are 1-0-0 against the spread vs the Cardinals. The average point spread in these games was Lions -1.2 and they won by an average of 11 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Detroit Lions48.524.823.252%54%17.0 (1 Win)
Arizona Cardinals+1.023.721.548%46%6.0 (0 Wins)

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New England Patriots

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the Patriots to win the game. The projected score is Patriots 29 and Steelers 19, with New England winning 69% of the time. At -263 on the moneyline, the Patriots implied probability to win is 72 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. Head-to-head, the Steelers are 1-0. In these games the Patriots averaged 20 points per game and the Steelers 17. The computer would set the spread at NE -9.5. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening -6. The Patriots have a record of 11-7-0 as a favorite. The Steelers have a record of 5-0-0 as an underdog. They have the same ATS records as they do straight up head-to-head. The Steelers have the ATS edge head to head going 1-0-0 vs the Patriots. The Patriots were favored by -2.5 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Pittsburgh Steelers51.522.819.130%30%17.0 (1 Win)
New England Patriots-6.028.728.670%69%20.0 (0 Wins)

Monday, September 09, 2019

Houston Texans vs New Orleans Saints

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the Saints to win the game. The projected score is Saints 31 and Texans 21, with New Orleans winning 70% of the time. The Saints are -303 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 75 percent. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The projection based point spread is NO -10. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening -7. The Saints have a record of 7-8-0 as a favorite. The Texans have a record of 2-1-1 as an underdog. The Texans are 3-3-2 ATS on the road since last season. The Saints were 4-6-0 ATS at home last season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Houston Texans53.523.220.928%29%--
New Orleans Saints-7.030.330.872%70%--

Denver Broncos vs Oakland Raiders

The simulations slightly favor the Broncos who are actually the underdogs according to Vegas odds. The projected score is Broncos 23 and Raiders 22, with Denver winning 51% of the latest sims. The moneyline for the Raiders is -135 which translates to 57 percent (chance of winning). The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. They both have one win head-to-head in recent seasons. In these games the Raiders averaged 46 points per game and the Broncos 23. The projection based point spread is DEN -1. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening -2.5. The Raiders have a record of 1-1-0 as a favorite. The Broncos have a record of 4-3-0 as an underdog. The Raiders have the ATS edge head to head going 2-0-0 vs the Broncos. The average point spread in these games was Broncos -2.8 but the Raiders won by an average of 23.3 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Denver Broncos43.520.523.245%51%22.7 (1 Win)
Oakland Raiders-2.523.022.755%48%46.0 (1 Win)