There is a 5.9% difference between conference leaders. The New England Patriots lead with a 31.7 percent chance of winning the AFC and the Kansas City Chiefs are at 25.8%. The gap seems to be widening. The Chiefs chances are down from 33 percent. The playoff race should be a tight one with only 0.38 wins separate the 3 teams projected for the #5, #6 and #7 best conference record. In terms of having a realistic chance of winning the conference, there are 7 legitimate contenders (those with >=4% chance).

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AFC FUTURESPROJ WINSWIN DIVPLAYOFFWIN CONF ODDSWIN CONF SIM
New England Patriots11.387.7%93.4%3/1 (25%)31.7%
Kansas City Chiefs10.754.0%83.3%3/1 (25%)25.8%
Los Angeles Chargers10.242.0%75.8%8/1 (11.1%)14.6%
Indianapolis Colts9.250.1%61.0%5/1 (16.7%)6.7%
Cleveland Browns9.236.3%54.8%8/1 (11.1%)5.5%
Baltimore Ravens9.029.0%49.0%20/1 (4.8%)5.1%
Pittsburgh Steelers8.931.3%49.5%10/1 (9.1%)4.8%
Houston Texans8.121.4%32.5%15/1 (6.2%)2.1%
New York Jets7.710.1%24.9%40/1 (2.4%)1.0%
Tennessee Titans7.315.3%22.9%50/1 (2%)0.9%
Jacksonville Jaguars7.113.1%20.0%30/1 (3.2%)0.8%
Denver Broncos7.23.5%15.8%40/1 (2.4%)0.6%
Cincinnati Bengals6.33.3%7.6%50/1 (2%)0.2%
Buffalo Bills6.22.1%6.7%50/1 (2%)0.1%
Oakland Raiders5.20.5%2.3%40/1 (2.4%)--
Miami Dolphins4.30.2%0.5%100/1 (1%)--

The difference at the top of the conference is huge at 10.6%. The New Orleans Saints lead with a 33.4 percent chance of winning the NFC and the Los Angeles Rams are at 22.8%. The difference between these teams is widening as the Rams chances are down from 32.9 percent. Expect the playoff race to be tight. In simulations, the Eagles average the #5 most wins and the Packers average the #7 most so the difference (0.89 wins) between making and missing the playoffs is expected to be small. There is not a lot of parity and power is concentrated at the top of the conference with just 6 teams having at least a 4% chance of winning it.

NFC FUTURES PROJ WINSWIN DIVPLAYOFFWIN CONF ODDSWIN CONF SIM
New Orleans Saints11.183.9%92.1%4/1 (20%)33.4%
Los Angeles Rams10.162.5%79.5%4/1 (20%)22.8%
Chicago Bears8.936.2%52.5%7/1 (12.5%)8.3%
Seattle Seahawks8.927.5%53.4%15/1 (6.2%)8.3%
Philadelphia Eagles9.148.8%61.0%7/1 (12.5%)7.4%
Dallas Cowboys8.631.0%46.7%12/1 (7.7%)5.3%
Green Bay Packers8.225.9%39.9%7/1 (12.5%)3.7%
Minnesota Vikings8.023.8%35.7%12/1 (7.7%)2.9%
Atlanta Falcons7.78.0%25.2%15/1 (6.2%)1.7%
Detroit Lions7.414.1%24.6%50/1 (2%)1.6%
San Francisco 49ers7.58.9%25.2%12/1 (7.7%)1.6%
Carolina Panthers7.25.3%18.2%30/1 (3.2%)1.1%
New York Giants7.010.4%17.9%50/1 (2%)0.9%
Washington Redskins6.79.9%15.9%50/1 (2%)0.6%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers6.22.7%8.7%50/1 (2%)0.3%
Arizona Cardinals5.41.1%3.6%50/1 (2%)--

It is a wide open field with more teams with a decent chance of winning it all than total playoff teams. There are 13 teams winning the championship in at least two percent of simulations. At #2, the Patriots have a 17 percent chance of winning the championship, which is 0 percentage points behind the Saints. At the bottom of the contenders list, there is just 0.3 percent separating the Ravens from the Cowboys.

SUPERBOWL CONTENDERSODDSODDS%SIM%TREND
New Orleans Saints8/111.1%17.5%--
New England Patriots6/114.3%17.5%--
Kansas City Chiefs6/114.3%15.9%--
Los Angeles Rams8/111.1%11.2%--
Los Angeles Chargers16/15.9%8.1%--
Chicago Bears14/16.7%3.7%--
Seattle Seahawks30/13.2%3.5%--
Indianapolis Colts10/19.1%3.2%--
Cleveland Browns16/15.9%2.7%--
Philadelphia Eagles14/16.7%2.7%--
Baltimore Ravens40/12.4%2.4%--
Pittsburgh Steelers20/14.8%2.2%--
Dallas Cowboys25/13.8%2.2%--
Green Bay Packers14/16.7%1.2%--
Minnesota Vikings25/13.8%1.1%--