1GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS 47.2% Chance of Winning Championship
Win 64% of Neutral Court Simulations

In their current series vs the Trail Blazers, they have an 85.5% chance of advancing. They have 47.2% chance of winning the championship.

The regular season went worse than expected. They won 57 games vs an expected win total of 60.9. Home court was not an advantage, at least not in terms of meeting expectations. They were OK on the road. They won 65.9% on the road which was as expected (67.5%). They won 30 at home and were expected to win 33.2. Our projected record for next season is similar. They are averaging 58 wins per sim and are projected to finish first in the West.

2MILWAUKEE BUCKS 25.4% Chance of Winning Championship
Win 63% of Neutral Court Simulations

In their current series vs the Raptors, they have a 53.4% chance of advancing. They have 25.4% chance of winning the championship.

The regular season went better than expected. They won 60 games vs an expected win total of 56.8. They won more games than expected at home and on the road. They won 65.9% on the road which was better than expected (62.3%). They won 33 at home and were expected to win 31.2. Our projected record for next season is similar. They are averaging 60 wins per sim and are projected to finish first in the East.

3TORONTO RAPTORS 23.6% Chance of Winning Championship
Win 61% of Neutral Court Simulations

In their current series vs the Bucks, they have a 46.6% chance of advancing. They have 23.6% chance of winning the championship.

The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 55.2 wins. Their 58 actual wins was above expectation. They won more games than expected at home and on the road. They went 26-15 on the road and were expected to win 24.4. Their 78% home win percentage was better than expected (75.1%). Our projected record for next season is similar. They are averaging 58 wins per sim and are projected to finish second in the East.

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4PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS 3.7% Chance of Winning Championship
Win 53% of Neutral Court Simulations

In their current series vs the Warriors, they have a 14.5% chance of advancing. They have 3.7% chance of winning the championship.

The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 46.9 wins. Their 53 actual wins was above expectation. Their strength was at home. They went 21-20 on the road and were expected to win 20.3. They won 32 at home and were expected to win 26.6. Our projected record for next season is similar. They are averaging 53 wins per sim and are projected to finish fourth in the West.

5ATLANTA HAWKS 29-53
Win 68% of Neutral Court Simulations

The Hawks could be poised to improve next season. Their neutral court simulation win percentage is significantly better than last season's win percentage. Their 29 regular season wins exceeded expectations. It was +3.4 above what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went better than expected. Their strength was in road games. Their 41.5% home win percentage was as expected (39.1%). They won 29.3% on the road which was much better than expected (23.4%). Our projected record for next season is similar. They are averaging 29 wins per sim and are projected to finish fourth to last in the East.

6CHARLOTTE HORNETS 39-43
Win 68% of Neutral Court Simulations

The Hornets could be poised to improve next season. Their neutral court simulation win percentage is significantly better than last season's win percentage. Their 39 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -1.4 below what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went worse than expected. They met expectations at home, it was on the road that they struggled. They went 14-27 on the road and were expected to win 15.9. Their 61% home win percentage was as expected (59.8%). Expect a similar record next season. In our latest simulations they are averaging 39 wins and are projected to finish ninth in the East.

7DALLAS MAVERICKS 33-49
Win 68% of Neutral Court Simulations

If the Mavericks play up to their potential, they should improve on last season. The regular season went worse than expected. They won 33 games vs an expected win total of 34.9. They came up short on the road. They were OK at home. They went 9-32 on the road and were expected to win 13.3. They won 24 at home and were expected to win 21.6. Our projected record for next season is similar. They are averaging 33 wins per sim and are projected to finish fourth to last in the West.

8CLEVELAND CAVALIERS 19-63
Win 60% of Neutral Court Simulations

The Cavaliers could be poised to improve next season. Their neutral court simulation win percentage is significantly better than last season's win percentage. The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 20.8 wins. Their 19 actual wins was below expectation. They met expectations at home, it was on the road that they struggled. Their 31.7% home win percentage was as expected (31.8%). They won 14.6% on the road which was much worse than expected (19%). Our projected record for next season is similar. They are averaging 19 wins per sim and are projected to finish second to last in the East.

9PHILADELPHIA 76ERS 51-31
Win 58% of Neutral Court Simulations

Their 51 regular season wins exceeded expectations. It was +1.5 above what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went better than expected. Their strength was at home. They went 20-21 on the road and were expected to win 20.7. Their 75.6% home win percentage was better than expected (70.1%). Our projected record for next season is similar. They are averaging 51 wins per sim and are projected to finish third in the East. The 76ers may take a step back next season. They won a much higher percentage of games than their neutral win percentage would indicate.

10HOUSTON ROCKETS 53-29
Win 57% of Neutral Court Simulations

The regular season went as expected. They won 53 games vs an expected win total of 52.1. They exceeded expectations at home. They went 22-19 on the road and were expected to win 23.2. Their 75.6% home win percentage was better than expected (70.6%). Expect a similar record next season. In our latest simulations they are averaging 53 wins and are projected to finish third in the West. They won more than their current neutral win simulation percentage warrants and the Rockets could take a step back next season.

11OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER 49-33
Win 53% of Neutral Court Simulations

The regular season went worse than expected. They won 49 games vs an expected win total of 51.2. They met expectations on the road. It was at home where they came up short. They won 53.7% on the road which was as expected (54.4%). They won 27 at home and were expected to win 29. Our projected record for next season is similar. They are averaging 49 wins per sim and are projected to finish sixth in the West. The Thunder may take a step back next season. They won a much higher percentage of games than their neutral win percentage would indicate.

12BOSTON CELTICS 49-33
Win 52% of Neutral Court Simulations

The regular season went worse than expected. They won 49 games vs an expected win total of 52.1. They came up short at home and on the road. They went 21-20 on the road and were expected to win 23.1. Their 68.3% home win percentage was worse than expected (70.9%). Expect a similar record next season. In our latest simulations they are averaging 49 wins and are projected to finish fourth in the East. They won more than their current neutral win simulation percentage warrants and the Celtics could take a step back next season.

13CHICAGO BULLS 22-60
Win 52% of Neutral Court Simulations

If the Bulls play up to their potential, they should improve on last season. The regular season went much worse than expected. They won 22 games vs an expected win total of 25. Home court was not an advantage, at least not in terms of meeting expectations. They were OK on the road. Their 22% home win percentage was much worse than expected (36.2%). They won 31.7% on the road which was much better than expected (24.7%). Expect a similar record next season. In our latest simulations they are averaging 22 wins and are projected to finish third to last in the East.

14LOS ANGELES LAKERS 37-45
Win 52% of Neutral Court Simulations

The Lakers are winning more in simulations than they did last season which indicates that they should improve next season. The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 38.9 wins. Their 37 actual wins was below expectation. They met expectations at home, it was on the road that they struggled. They went 15-26 on the road and were expected to win 17.3. They won 22 at home and were expected to win 21.6. Our projected record for next season is similar. They are averaging 37 wins per sim and are projected to finish tenth in the West.

15UTAH JAZZ 50-32
Win 51% of Neutral Court Simulations

Their 50 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -3.7 below what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went worse than expected. They didn't meet expectations on the road and at home. Their 70.7% home win percentage was worse than expected (74.1%). They won 51.2% on the road which was worse than expected (57%). Expect a similar record next season. In our latest simulations they are averaging 50 wins and are projected to finish fifth in the West. They won more than their current neutral win simulation percentage warrants and the Jazz could take a step back next season.

16DENVER NUGGETS 54-28
Win 50% of Neutral Court Simulations

Their 54 regular season wins exceeded expectations. It was +3.4 above what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went better than expected. They exceeded expectations at home. They went 20-21 on the road and were expected to win 21.2. Their 82.9% home win percentage was much better than expected (71.7%). Expect a similar record next season. In our latest simulations they are averaging 54 wins and are projected to finish second in the West. They won more than their current neutral win simulation percentage warrants and the Nuggets could take a step back next season.

17MIAMI HEAT 39-43
Win 48% of Neutral Court Simulations

The regular season went worse than expected. They won 39 games vs an expected win total of 40.6. They met expectations on the road. It was at home where they came up short. They won 48.8% on the road which was much better than expected (41.4%). They won 19 at home and were expected to win 23.6. Our projected record for next season is similar. They are averaging 39 wins per sim and are projected to finish tenth in the East.

18MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES 33-49
Win 48% of Neutral Court Simulations

If the Grizzlies play up to their potential, they should improve on last season. Their 33 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -0.5 below what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went as expected. Their strength was at home. They went 12-29 on the road and were expected to win 13.6. They won 21 at home and were expected to win 19.9. Expect a similar record next season. In our latest simulations they are averaging 33 wins and are projected to finish third to last in the West.

19SAN ANTONIO SPURS 48-34
Win 45% of Neutral Court Simulations

The regular season went better than expected. They won 48 games vs an expected win total of 45.5. Their strength was at home. They went 16-25 on the road and were expected to win 19.2. Their 78% home win percentage was much better than expected (64%). Expect a similar record next season. In our latest simulations they are averaging 49 wins and are projected to finish seventh in the West. They won more than their current neutral win simulation percentage warrants and the Spurs could take a step back next season.

20MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES 36-46
Win 44% of Neutral Court Simulations

Their 36 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -2 below what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went worse than expected. They met expectations at home, it was on the road that they struggled. They went 11-30 on the road and were expected to win 16.1. They won 25 at home and were expected to win 22. Expect a similar record next season. In our latest simulations they are averaging 36 wins and are projected to finish eleventh in the West.

21INDIANA PACERS 48-34
Win 43% of Neutral Court Simulations

The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 45.5 wins. Their 48 actual wins was above expectation. Their strength was at home. They went 19-22 on the road and were expected to win 19.2. They won 29 at home and were expected to win 26.3. Our projected record for next season is similar. They are averaging 48 wins per sim and are projected to finish fifth in the East. They won more than their current neutral win simulation percentage warrants and the Pacers could take a step back next season.

22NEW ORLEANS PELICANS 33-49
Win 41% of Neutral Court Simulations

The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 37.4 wins. Their 33 actual wins was below expectation. They didn't meet expectations on the road and at home. They went 14-27 on the road and were expected to win 15.7. Their 46.3% home win percentage was much worse than expected (52.8%). Expect a similar record next season. In our latest simulations they are averaging 33 wins and are projected to finish second to last in the West.

23ORLANDO MAGIC 42-40
Win 40% of Neutral Court Simulations

The regular season went better than expected. They won 42 games vs an expected win total of 36.8. They exceeded expectations on both the road and at home. They went 17-24 on the road and were expected to win 15. They won 25 at home and were expected to win 21.8. Our projected record for next season is similar. They are averaging 43 wins per sim and are projected to finish sixth in the East. The Magic may take a step back next season. They won a much higher percentage of games than their neutral win percentage would indicate.

24BROOKLYN NETS 42-40
Win 38% of Neutral Court Simulations

Their 42 regular season wins exceeded expectations. It was +5.6 above what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went much better than expected. Their strength was in road games. They won 46.3% on the road which was much better than expected (36.2%). They won 23 at home and were expected to win 21.6. Our projected record for next season is similar. They are averaging 43 wins per sim and are projected to finish seventh in the East. They won more than their current neutral win simulation percentage warrants and the Nets could take a step back next season.

25DETROIT PISTONS 41-41
Win 36% of Neutral Court Simulations

The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 40.6 wins. Their 41 actual wins was above expectation. They exceeded expectations at home. They went 15-26 on the road and were expected to win 16.5. Their 63.4% home win percentage was better than expected (58.9%). Our projected record for next season is similar. They are averaging 41 wins per sim and are projected to finish eighth in the East. They won more than their current neutral win simulation percentage warrants and the Pistons could take a step back next season.

26LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS 48-34
Win 35% of Neutral Court Simulations

The regular season went better than expected. They won 48 games vs an expected win total of 42.4. They exceeded expectations on both the road and at home. Their 63.4% home win percentage was better than expected (60%). They won 53.7% on the road which was much better than expected (43.4%). Expect a similar record next season. In our latest simulations they are averaging 48 wins and are projected to finish eighth in the West. They won more than their current neutral win simulation percentage warrants and the Clippers could take a step back next season.

27NEW YORK KNICKS 17-65
Win 32% of Neutral Court Simulations

If the Knicks play up to their potential, they should improve on last season. Their 17 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -5.3 below what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went much worse than expected. They didn't meet expectations on the road and at home. They won 19.5% on the road which was much worse than expected (22.1%). They won 9 at home and were expected to win 13.3. Our projected record for next season is similar. They are averaging 17 wins per sim and are projected to finish last in the East.

28SACRAMENTO KINGS 39-43
Win 32% of Neutral Court Simulations

The regular season went better than expected. They won 39 games vs an expected win total of 35.6. They exceeded expectations at home. Their 58.5% home win percentage was better than expected (51.1%). They won 36.6% on the road which was as expected (35.7%). Our projected record for next season is similar. They are averaging 39 wins per sim and are projected to finish ninth in the West. The Kings may take a step back next season. They won a much higher percentage of games than their neutral win percentage would indicate.

29WASHINGTON WIZARDS 32-50
Win 19% of Neutral Court Simulations

Their 32 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -6.3 below what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went much worse than expected. They came up short on the road. They were OK at home. They went 10-31 on the road and were expected to win 15.6. They won 22 at home and were expected to win 22.7. Expect a similar record next season. In our latest simulations they are averaging 32 wins and are projected to finish eleventh in the East. The Wizards may take a step back next season. They won a much higher percentage of games than their neutral win percentage would indicate.

30PHOENIX SUNS 19-63
Win 18% of Neutral Court Simulations

Their 19 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -3.4 below what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went much worse than expected. They came up short at home and on the road. Their 29.3% home win percentage was much worse than expected (33.7%). They won 17.1% on the road which was much worse than expected (20.9%). Expect a similar record next season. In our latest simulations they are averaging 19 wins and are projected to finish last in the West. The Suns may take a step back next season. They won a much higher percentage of games than their neutral win percentage would indicate.