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Washington
Nationals
Stadium Nationals Park
19-31 Overall | NL EAST 4th
TEAM STATSAVGRHRERA
Nationals.243219634.94
Schedule
Regular season
Tue? 5/21
@
Mets
L5-6
Wed? 5/22
@
Mets
L1-6
Thu? 5/23
@
Mets
L4-6
Fri? 5/24
vs
Marlins
Gametracker
Sat? 5/25
vs
Marlins
4:05pm
Sun? 5/26
vs
Marlins
1:35pm
Mon? 5/27
vs
Marlins
ESPN1:05pm
Tue? 5/28
@
Braves
7:20pm
Wed? 5/29
@
Braves
7:20pm
Fri? 5/31
@
Reds
7:10pm
Team Outlook and Scouting Report

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING DOWN

The Nationals are competing to make the playoffs but their chances are on a downward trend. In our pre-season forecast they had a 80.4% chance of making the playoffs. On 4/12 they had an 83.8% chance before dropping to 15.9% on 5/23. From the start of the season to now their chances are down significantly to 12.9%. Before the start of their 5 game losing streak they were at 22.1%. They have a 7.8% chance of winning their division. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the NL at 4.8% (20/1 odds) and a 2.4% chance of winning it all (40/1).

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Easier

  • Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 47% #3 Easiest
  • Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 54% #2 Toughest

Nationals' Season Forecast Changes

Sportsline not only has a pick on every game and line our Experts provide winning Daily Fantasy Optimal Lineups every day.

SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: F

Based on the money line projected win totals in each game, the 19-31 Nationals 'should have' 26 wins. They have 21 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 8 good wins (wins as clear underdog, or 2+ final margin in what was expected to be a close game, or a 5+ final margin). They have been below expectations on the road and at home. Their 9-17- road record is -13% lower than expected. Their 10-14- home record is -13% lower. Losers of 5 in a row they have a 13.7% chance of seeing that extend to 7 straight, but they also have a 19.8% chance of turning things around and winning their next 3 games. The Nationals should be a slightly above average team based on simulations where they won 50.3% of the simulations played vs every other team as if they were playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#15 in the league). In our pre-season simulations they were ranked #7 winning 56.2%.

Their record should be better. Their average run differential is -0.8 which ranks #12 in the NL, but their rank based on win percentage is #14. They are the #11 ranked team in run differential (based on all teams' road stats) and the #12 ranked team among home teams. Their average run differential in their past 13 games is -1.77 which ranks them #14 over this stretch, slightly worse than overall.

TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):

NEXT 9 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY CLOUDY

The forecast for their next 9 games is a mixed bag. They have 4 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, 3 more games where they are favored by at least 53%, and just 2 games where they are a clear underdog.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game

MAY 24
LIKELY WIN
62% MIA
--
MAY 25
LIKELY WIN
64% MIA
--
MAY 26
CLOSE GAME
50% MIA
--
MAY 27
LIKELY WIN
70% MIA
--
MAY 28
CLOSE GAME
55% @ATL
543 miles
MAY 29
LIKELY LOSS
35% @ATL
-- miles
MAY 31
CLOSE GAME
57% @CIN
403 miles
JUN 1
LIKELY LOSS
33% @CIN
-- miles
JUN 2
CLOSE GAME
54% @CIN
-- miles
JUN 4
LIKELY WIN
68% CHW
--

The most likely scenario over the next 9 games is a record of 5-4 (27% chance). Their chances of winning 7 or more are 12%. At #14 in the league, they are behind the Giants by 2.5 points. They have a +0.67 advantage in projected wins over their next 9 games and could narrow the gap. They are ahead of the Marlins by 1.5 points. With a +0.57 advantage in projected wins over their next 9 games they have a good chance of widening the gap.

The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Nationals are just the 27th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Nationals are playing 13 games, traveling 9138 miles crossing 6 time zones. They rank #23 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Sportsline has a free pick on the Washington Nationals' next game. They are -140 favorites and there is slight value on them to win. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is a lot of value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.

Roster
NoPlayerPosHeightWeightBirthdateEXPCOLLEGE
15 Adams, Matt 1B6-324508/31/19888No College
20 Barraclough, Kyle RP6-222405/23/19905No College
46 Corbin, Patrick SP6-321007/19/19897No College
63 Doolittle, Sean RP6-220409/26/19868Virginia
9 Dozier, Brian 2B5-1119805/15/19878Southern Miss
2 Eaton, Adam RF5-917612/06/19888Miami (OH)
23 Fedde, Erick RP6-419502/25/19933UNLV
10 Gomes, Yan C6-221507/19/19878No College
33 Grace, Matt RP6-421512/14/19885UCLA
47 Kendrick, Howie 3B5-1122007/12/198314No College
61 McGowin, Kyle RP6-319511/27/19912No College
88 Parra, Gerardo 1B5-1121405/06/198711No College
21 Rainey, Tanner RP6-223512/25/19922No College
6 Rendon, Anthony 3B6-120006/06/19907Rice
16 Robles, Victor CF6-019005/19/19973No College
41 Ross, Joe RP6-422005/21/19935No College
31 Scherzer, Max SP6-321507/27/198412Missouri
36 Sipp, Tony RP6-019407/12/198311Clemson
22 Soto, Juan LF6-118510/25/19982No College
37 Strasburg, Stephen SP6-523507/20/198810San Diego State
51 Suero, Wander RP6-421109/15/19912No College
28 Suzuki, Kurt C5-1121010/04/198313No College
3 Taylor, Michael CF6-421203/26/19916No College
7 Turner, Trea SS6-218506/30/19935NC State
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