|Team Outlook and Scouting Report|
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING DOWN
The Nationals are competing to make the playoffs but their chances are on a downward trend. In our pre-season forecast they had a 80.4% chance of making the playoffs. On 4/12 they had an 83.8% chance before dropping to 15.9% on 5/23. From the start of the season to now their chances are down significantly to 12.9%. Before the start of their 5 game losing streak they were at 22.1%. They have a 7.8% chance of winning their division. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the NL at 4.8% (20/1 odds) and a 2.4% chance of winning it all (40/1).
Strength of Schedule Getting Much Easier
Nationals' Season Forecast Changes
SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: F
Based on the money line projected win totals in each game, the 19-31 Nationals 'should have' 26 wins. They have 21 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 8 good wins (wins as clear underdog, or 2+ final margin in what was expected to be a close game, or a 5+ final margin). They have been below expectations on the road and at home. Their 9-17- road record is -13% lower than expected. Their 10-14- home record is -13% lower. Losers of 5 in a row they have a 13.7% chance of seeing that extend to 7 straight, but they also have a 19.8% chance of turning things around and winning their next 3 games. The Nationals should be a slightly above average team based on simulations where they won 50.3% of the simulations played vs every other team as if they were playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#15 in the league). In our pre-season simulations they were ranked #7 winning 56.2%.
Their record should be better. Their average run differential is -0.8 which ranks #12 in the NL, but their rank based on win percentage is #14. They are the #11 ranked team in run differential (based on all teams' road stats) and the #12 ranked team among home teams. Their average run differential in their past 13 games is -1.77 which ranks them #14 over this stretch, slightly worse than overall.
TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):
NEXT 9 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY CLOUDY
The forecast for their next 9 games is a mixed bag. They have 4 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, 3 more games where they are favored by at least 53%, and just 2 games where they are a clear underdog.
The most likely scenario over the next 9 games is a record of 5-4 (27% chance). Their chances of winning 7 or more are 12%. At #14 in the league, they are behind the Giants by 2.5 points. They have a +0.67 advantage in projected wins over their next 9 games and could narrow the gap. They are ahead of the Marlins by 1.5 points. With a +0.57 advantage in projected wins over their next 9 games they have a good chance of widening the gap.
The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Nationals are just the 27th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Nationals are playing 13 games, traveling 9138 miles crossing 6 time zones. They rank #23 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
Sportsline has a free pick on the Washington Nationals' next game. They are -140 favorites and there is slight value on them to win. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is a lot of value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|15||Adams, Matt||1B||6-3||245||08/31/1988||8||No College|
|20||Barraclough, Kyle||RP||6-2||224||05/23/1990||5||No College|
|46||Corbin, Patrick||SP||6-3||210||07/19/1989||7||No College|
|9||Dozier, Brian||2B||5-11||198||05/15/1987||8||Southern Miss|
|2||Eaton, Adam||RF||5-9||176||12/06/1988||8||Miami (OH)|
|10||Gomes, Yan||C||6-2||215||07/19/1987||8||No College|
|47||Kendrick, Howie||3B||5-11||220||07/12/1983||14||No College|
|61||McGowin, Kyle||RP||6-3||195||11/27/1991||2||No College|
|88||Parra, Gerardo||1B||5-11||214||05/06/1987||11||No College|
|21||Rainey, Tanner||RP||6-2||235||12/25/1992||2||No College|
|16||Robles, Victor||CF||6-0||190||05/19/1997||3||No College|
|41||Ross, Joe||RP||6-4||220||05/21/1993||5||No College|
|22||Soto, Juan||LF||6-1||185||10/25/1998||2||No College|
|37||Strasburg, Stephen||SP||6-5||235||07/20/1988||10||San Diego State|
|51||Suero, Wander||RP||6-4||211||09/15/1991||2||No College|
|28||Suzuki, Kurt||C||5-11||210||10/04/1983||13||No College|
|3||Taylor, Michael||CF||6-4||212||03/26/1991||6||No College|
|7||Turner, Trea||SS||6-2||185||06/30/1993||5||NC State|