|Team Outlook and Scouting Report|
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING UP
Before the season, the Blue Jays were projected for 69.2 points (average per simulation) and things are looking positive. On 4/12 they had a 61.7% chance before increasing to 78.7% on 5/5. Their current chances are at 68.5%. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the AL at 0.4% (250/1 odds) and a 0.2% chance of winning it all (500/1).
Strength of Schedule Getting Much Easier
Blue Jays' Season Forecast Changes
SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: F
Based on the money line projected win totals in each game, the 18-27 Blue Jays 'should have' 21 wins. If you consider winning as a clear-cut underdog or winning by 2+ as a slight favorite, or by 5+ as a favorite then they have 13 good wins vs 12 bad losses. They have come up especially short at home. Their 8-13- home record is -13% lower than their expected win percentage. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (6-13, 32%) is under their expected 47% win percentage. In simulations where the Blue Jays played every other team (neutral court in playoffs) they won just 40.8% of the time (#26 in the league). Their peak rank was #23 in the league back on 5/5.
Their record should be better. Their average run differential is -0.62 which ranks #10 in the AL, but their rank based on win percentage is #13. They are the #10 ranked team in run differential (based on all teams' road stats) and the #11 ranked team among home teams. Their average run differential in their past 12 games is -2.42 which ranks them #12 over this stretch, slightly worse than overall.
TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):
NEXT 10 GAME OUTLOOK: STORMY
The Blue Jays next 10 game forecast looks rough, to say the least. They have 3 games where they are expected to be competitive with at least a 47% chance of winning, and 7 games where they are a clear underdog.
The most likely scenario over the next 10 games is a record of 4-6 (25% chance). Their chances of winning 6 or more are 13.4%. At #13 in the league, they are behind the Tigers by half a point. With a +0.3 advantage in projected wins over their next 10 games they have a good chance of improving their league seed. They are ahead of the Orioles by 3 points. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Orioles. There is only a 0.21 advantage in projected wins over their next 10 games.
The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Blue Jays are the 6th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Blue Jays are playing 14 games, traveling 11147 miles crossing 7 time zones. They rank #11 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
Sportsline has a free pick on the Toronto Blue Jays' next game. They are +100 underdogs and are not a good value. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is good value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|31||Biagini, Joe||RP||6-5||235||05/29/1990||4||No College|
|49||Davis, Jonathan||CF||5-8||190||05/12/1992||2||No College|
|3||Drury, Brandon||3B||6-2||210||08/21/1992||5||No College|
|60||Feierabend, Ryan||SP||6-3||225||08/22/1985||5||No College|
|16||Galvis, Freddy||SS||5-10||185||11/14/1989||8||No College|
|43||Gaviglio, Sam||RP||6-2||195||05/22/1990||3||Oregon State|
|51||Giles, Ken||RP||6-2||205||09/20/1990||6||No College|
|15||Grichuk, Randal||CF||6-1||205||08/13/1991||6||No College|
|27||Guerrero, Vladimir||3B||6-2||250||03/16/1999||1||No College|
|46||Hudson, Daniel||RP||6-3||225||03/09/1987||10||No College|
|33||Jackson, Edwin||SP||6-2||215||09/09/1983||17||No College|
|9||Jansen, Danny||C||6-2||225||04/15/1995||2||No College|
|64||Law, Derek||RP||6-3||224||09/14/1990||4||No College|
|65||Luciano, Elvis||RP||6-2||184||02/15/2000||1||No College|
|58||Mayza, Tim||RP||6-3||220||01/15/1992||3||No College|
|28||McKinney, Billy||RF||6-1||205||08/23/1994||2||No College|
|41||Sanchez, Aaron||SP||6-4||215||07/01/1992||6||No College|
|14||Smoak, Justin||1B||6-4||220||12/05/1986||10||South Carolina|
|5||Sogard, Eric||2B||5-10||185||05/22/1986||9||Arizona State|
|44||Tellez, Rowdy||DH||6-4||220||03/16/1995||2||No College|
|52||Tepera, Ryan||RP||6-2||195||11/03/1987||5||No College|
|57||Thornton, Trent||SP||6-0||175||09/30/1993||1||North Carolina|
|7||Urena, Richard||2B||6-0||185||02/26/1996||3||No College|