|Team Outlook and Scouting Report|
SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B+
At 35-21 the Rays are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 32 wins. If you consider winning as a clear-cut underdog or winning by 2+ as a slight favorite, or by 5+ as a favorite then they have 20 good wins vs 16 bad losses. They have been better than expected on the road. Their 18-8- road record is +13% better than their expected win percentage. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (12-7, 63%) is better than their expected 55% win percentage. The Rays are a good team (in simulations) and won 59.5% of the simulations vs every other team playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#5 in the league). They have moved up from #12 in the league back on 4/8.
Their record should be slightly better. Their average run differential is +1.43 which ranks #3 in the AL, but their rank based on win percentage is #4. They are the #3 ranked team in run differential (based on all teams' road stats). This is the same ranking they have among home teams. Their average run differential in their past 13 games is +1.38.
TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):
NEXT 10 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY SUNNY
The Rays next 10 game forecast looks like 'partly sunny skies'. They have 4 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, 2 more games where they are favored by at least 53%, and just 2 games where they are a clear underdog. The rest of the games are toss ups.
The most likely scenario over the next 10 games is a record of 6-4 (28% chance). Their chances of winning 8 or more are 14%. At #4 in the league, they are behind the Astros by 2.5 points. With a -0.81 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 10 games they may find themselves further behind in the league. They are ahead of the Rangers by 6 points. With a +0.92 advantage in projected wins over their next 10 games they have a good chance of widening the gap.
Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Rays are just the 26th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Rays are playing 15 games, traveling 15640 miles crossing no time zones. They rank #15 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
The Tampa Bay Rays' next game is on June 2. Visit Sportsline.com to get picks, free trends and player projections for this game.
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG
The Rays are World Series contenders, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 1.7% chance of winning it all. On 3/29 they had a 1.1% chance before increasing to 12.1% on 5/5. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 7.7%. They have a 34.8% chance of winning their division. They are projected to finish #4 in the conference and have a 91% chance of making the playoffs. Based on the odds, they have a 10% chance of winning the AL (9/1) and a 5.3% chance of winning it all (18/1). In simulations they make the World Series 16.3% of the time.
Season Strength of Schedule is Relatively Easy
Rays' Season Forecast Changes
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|1||Adames, Willy||SS||6-0||200||09/02/1995||2||No College|
|---||Arroyo, Christian||6-1||205||05/30/1995||3||No College|
|63||Castillo, Diego||RP||6-3||240||01/18/1994||2||No College|
|72||Chirinos, Yonny||RP||6-2||235||12/26/1993||2||No College|
|26||Choi, Ji-Man||1B||6-1||230||05/19/1991||4||No College|
|2||Diaz, Yandy||3B||6-2||185||08/08/1991||3||No College|
|24||Garcia, Avisail||RF||6-4||240||06/12/1991||8||No College|
|54||Heredia, Guillermo||CF||5-10||180||01/31/1991||4||No College|
|39||Kiermaier, Kevin||CF||6-1||215||04/22/1990||7||No College|
|17||Meadows, Austin||DH||6-3||210||05/03/1995||2||No College|
|50||Morton, Charlie||SP||6-5||235||11/12/1983||12||No College|
|15||Pagan, Emilio||RP||6-3||210||05/07/1991||3||No College|
|29||Pham, Tommy||LF||6-1||215||03/08/1988||6||No College|
|28||Robertson, Daniel||3B||5-11||200||03/22/1994||3||No College|
|52||Roe, Chaz||RP||6-5||190||10/09/1986||7||No College|
|4||Snell, Blake||SP||6-4||200||12/04/1992||4||No College|
|44||Wood, Hunter||RP||6-1||165||08/12/1993||3||No College|
|48||Yarbrough, Ryan||RP||6-5||210||12/31/1991||2||No College|
|37||d'Arnaud, Travis||C||6-2||211||02/10/1989||7||No College|