|Team Outlook and Scouting Report|
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING DOWN
The Cardinals are contenders to win the NL but it is looking less likely to happen. In our pre-season forecast they had a 8.5% chance of making the World Series. On 4/26 they had a 16.6% chance before dropping to 2.9% on 5/13. From the start of the season to now their chances are down significantly to 2.4%. Before the start of their 2 game losing streak they were at 3.4%. They have a 4.7% chance of winning their division. They will be fighting for a playoff spot (currently projected to finish #7 in the conference) and have a 24% chance of making the playoffs. Based on the odds, they have an 11.1% chance of winning the NL (8/1) and a 5.9% chance of winning it all (16/1). In simulations they win the World Series 1% of the time.
Strength of Schedule Getting Much Easier
Cardinals' Season Forecast Changes
SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B-
At 23-21 the Cardinals are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 22.6 wins. If you consider winning as a clear-cut underdog or winning by 2+ as a slight favorite, or by 5+ as a favorite then they have 13 good wins but they also have 13 bad losses. They have won 43% of their road games and were expected to win 48%. At home they have a 61% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 54%. Over the past 3 weeks they have played poorly going 8-12, 40%. The Cardinals should be a slightly above average team based on simulations where they won 53.4% of the simulations played vs every other team as if they were playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#11 in the league). In our pre-season simulations they were ranked #8 winning 55.9%.
Their average run differential is +0.43 which ranks #6 in the NL, which is the same as how they rank in win percentage. This is a relatively better home team than a road team. They are the #4 ranked team in run differential in home games, vs #10 in road games. They are trending down. Their average run differential in their past 13 games is -1.23 (#11 over this stretch).
TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):
NEXT 8 GAME OUTLOOK: CLOUDY
The forecast for their next 8 games can be described as 'cloudy'. They have 4 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, and just 4 games where they are a clear underdog.
The most likely scenario over the next 8 games is a record of 4-4 (27% chance). Their chances of winning 6 or more are 24%. At #7 in the league, they are fighting with the Braves for positioning. With a -0.55 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 8 games they may find themselves further behind in the league. They are in a battle with Padres in the league. With a -0.5 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 8 games they may find the gap between them closing.
The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Cardinals are the 15th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Cardinals are playing 12 games, traveling 6041 miles crossing 4 time zones. They rank #27 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
The St Louis Cardinals' next game is on May 17. Visit Sportsline.com to get picks, free trends and player projections for this game.
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|60||Brebbia, John||RP||6-1||200||05/30/1990||3||No College|
|12||DeJong, Paul||SS||6-0||200||08/02/1993||3||No College|
|22||Flaherty, Jack||SP||6-4||225||10/15/1995||3||No College|
|25||Fowler, Dexter||RF||6-5||205||03/22/1986||12||No College|
|65||Gallegos, Giovanny||RP||6-2||210||08/14/1991||3||No College|
|53||Gant, John||RP||6-4||195||08/06/1992||4||No College|
|46||Goldschmidt, Paul||1B||6-3||225||09/10/1987||9||No College|
|3||Gyorko, Jedd||3B||5-10||200||09/23/1988||7||West Virginia|
|---||Helsley, Ryan||6-1||195||No College|
|49||Hicks, Jordan||RP||6-2||185||No College|
|43||Hudson, Dakota||SP||6-5||215||09/15/1994||2||Mississippi State|
|18||Martinez, Carlos||SP||5-11||200||09/21/1991||6||No College|
|38||Martinez, Jose||RF||6-7||230||07/25/1988||4||No College|
|39||Mikolas, Miles||SP||6-5||220||08/23/1988||5||No College|
|21||Miller, Andrew||RP||6-7||205||05/21/1985||14||North Carolina|
|4||Molina, Yadier||C||5-11||210||07/13/1982||16||No College|
|34||Munoz, Yairo||SS||6-0||210||01/23/1995||2||No College|
|23||Ozuna, Marcell||LF||6-1||225||11/12/1990||7||No College|
|52||Wacha, Michael||SP||6-5||215||07/01/1991||7||Texas A&M|
|50||Wainwright, Adam||SP||6-7||220||08/30/1981||14||No College|
|30||Webb, Tyler||RP||6-5||230||07/20/1990||3||South Carolina|
|32||Wieters, Matt||C||6-5||230||05/21/1986||11||Georgia Tech|