|Team Outlook and Scouting Report|
SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: C
At 23-29 the Mariners are behind their money line projected win total of 24.2 wins. If you consider winning as a clear-cut underdog or winning by 2+ as a slight favorite, or by 5+ as a favorite then they have 13 good wins vs 10 bad losses. They have won 46% of their road games and were expected to win 46%. At home they have a 42% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 47%. Losers of 3 in a row they have a 40.2% chance of seeing that extend to 5 straight. In simulations, the Mariners are a below average team and won 47.3% of the simulations played vs every other team as if they were playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#22 in the league). Their peak rank was #9 in the league back on 4/21.
Their record is slightly better than it should be. Their average run differential is -0.73 which ranks #12 in the AL, but their rank based on win percentage is #11. This is a relatively better road team than a home team. They are the #7 ranked team in run differential in road games, vs #12 in home games. They are trending down. Their average run differential in their past 12 games is -4.17 (#15 over this stretch).
TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):
NEXT 10 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY CLOUDY
The Mariners next 10 game forecast looks like a mix of 'clouds and sun'. They have 2 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, 2 more games where they are favored by at least 53%, and just 4 games where they are a clear underdog. The rest of the games are toss ups.
The most likely scenario over the next 10 games is a record of 5-5 (26% chance). Their chances of winning 7 or more are 16.6%. At #11 in the league, they are behind the Angels by half a point. With a +0.54 advantage in projected wins over their next 10 games they have a good chance of improving their league seed. They are ahead of the Blue Jays by 2 points. With a +1.65 advantage in projected wins over their next 10 games they have a good chance of widening the gap.
Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Mariners are the 6th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Mariners are playing 15 games, traveling 4387 miles crossing no time zones. They rank #14 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
Sportsline has a free pick on the Seattle Mariners' next game. They are +138 underdogs and there is slight value on them to win. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is a lot of value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG
Before the season, the Mariners were projected for 74.4 points (average per simulation), and their projected points has been up and down this season. On 3/18 they had a 74% chance before increasing to 91.8% on 4/21. Their current chances are at 75.3%. The playoffs are not likely with their 0.7% chance and a projected #11 finish in the conference. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the AL at 0.4% (250/1 odds) and a 0.2% chance of winning it all (500/1).
Strength of Schedule Getting Tougher
Mariners' Season Forecast Changes
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|63||Adams, Austin||RP||6-3||225||05/05/1991||3||No College|
|52||Bass, Anthony||RP||6-2||200||11/01/1987||8||No College|
|1||Beckham, Tim||SS||6-1||210||01/27/1990||6||No College|
|36||Biddle, Jesse||RP||6-5||220||10/22/1991||2||No College|
|65||Brennan, Brandon||RP||6-4||220||07/26/1991||1||No College|
|32||Bruce, Jay||RF||6-3||230||04/03/1987||12||No College|
|3||Crawford, J.P.||SS||6-2||180||01/11/1995||3||No College|
|55||Elias, Roenis||RP||5-11||197||08/01/1988||6||No College|
|10||Encarnacion, Edwin||1B||6-1||230||01/07/1983||15||No College|
|35||Gearrin, Cory||RP||6-1||205||04/14/1986||8||No College|
|7||Gonzales, Marco||SP||6-1||199||02/16/1992||5||No College|
|17||Haniger, Mitch||RF||6-2||204||12/23/1990||4||No College|
|18||Kikuchi, Yusei||SP||6-0||200||06/17/1991||1||No College|
|8||Leake, Mike||SP||5-11||170||11/12/1987||10||Arizona State|
|39||Long, Shedric||2B||5-10||180||08/22/1995||0||No College|
|22||Narvaez, Omar||C||6-0||220||02/10/1992||4||No College|
|54||Sadzeck, Connor||RP||6-7||240||10/01/1991||2||No College|
|16||Santana, Domingo||LF||6-5||228||08/05/1992||6||No College|
|0||Smith, Mallex||CF||5-10||180||05/06/1993||4||No College|
|20||Vogelbach, Daniel||DH||6-0||250||12/17/1992||4||No College|