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San Diego
Padres
Stadium Petco Park
23-22 Overall | NL WEST 3rd
TEAM STATSAVGRHRERA
Padres.228172663.89
Schedule
Regular season
Mon? 5/20
vs
Diamondbacks
10:10pm
Tue? 5/21
vs
Diamondbacks
10:10pm
Wed? 5/22
vs
Diamondbacks
3:40pm
Fri? 5/24
@
Blue Jays
7:07pm
Sat? 5/25
@
Blue Jays
3:07pm
Sun? 5/26
@
Blue Jays
1:07pm
Mon? 5/27
@
Yankees
1:05pm
Tue? 5/28
@
Yankees
6:35pm
Wed? 5/29
@
Yankees
1:05pm
Fri? 5/31
vs
Marlins
10:10pm
Team Outlook and Scouting Report

SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B

At 23-21 the Padres are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 21.9 wins. If you consider winning as a clear-cut underdog or winning by 2+ as a slight favorite, or by 5+ as a favorite then they have 10 good wins but they also have 10 bad losses. They have been better than expected on the road. Their 12-10- road record is +10% better than their expected win percentage. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (9-10, 47%) is better than their expected 45% win percentage. In simulations, the Padres are a below average team and won 47.9% of the simulations played vs every other team as if they were playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#21 in the league). They have moved up from #25 in the league back on 4/19.

Their record is better than it should be. Their average run differential is -0.34 which ranks #10 in the NL, but their rank based on win percentage is #6. They are the #11 ranked team in run differential (based on all teams' road stats) and the #10 ranked team among home teams. Their average run differential in their past 12 games is -0.92.

TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):

Sportsline not only has a pick on every game and line our Experts provide winning Daily Fantasy Optimal Lineups every day.

NEXT 10 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY SUNNY

The Padres next 10 game forecast looks like 'partly sunny skies'. They have 2 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, 2 more games where they are favored by at least 53%, and just 2 games where they are a clear underdog. The rest of the games are toss ups.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game

MAY 17
CLOSE GAME
51% PIT
--
MAY 18
CLOSE GAME
53% PIT
--
MAY 19
LIKELY WIN
64% PIT
--
MAY 20
CLOSE GAME
48% ARI
--
MAY 21
CLOSE GAME
42% ARI
--
MAY 22
CLOSE GAME
48% ARI
--
MAY 24
CLOSE GAME
51% @TOR
2166 miles
MAY 25
LIKELY WIN
65% @TOR
-- miles
MAY 26
CLOSE GAME
53% @TOR
-- miles
MAY 27
LIKELY LOSS
28% @NYY
341 miles

The most likely scenario over the next 10 games is a record of 5-5 (24% chance). Their chances of winning 7 or more are 17.2%. At #8 in the league, they are fighting with the Cardinals for positioning. With a +0.5 advantage in projected wins over their next 10 games they have a good chance of improving their league seed. They are ahead of the Pirates by half a point. With a +0.66 advantage in projected wins over their next 10 games they have a good chance of widening the gap.

The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Padres are the 19th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Padres are playing 13 games, traveling 25171 miles crossing 33 time zones. They rank #4 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

According to Sportsline the San Diego Padres are -164 favorites but their simulated win percentage is very different and we see this as a pick with a lot of value. Get the pick for this game at Sportsline.com.

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING UP

The Padres are competing to make the playoffs and their chances are clearly on the rise. In our pre-season forecast they had a 3% chance of making the playoffs. On 4/21 they had a 0.3% chance before increasing to 17.1% on 5/12. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 9.3%. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the NL at 4.8% (20/1 odds) and a 2.4% chance of winning it all (40/1).

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Tougher

  • Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 51% #6 Toughest
  • Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 49% #13 Easiest

Padres' Season Forecast Changes

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.

Roster
NoPlayerPosHeightWeightBirthdateEXPCOLLEGE
62 Allen, Austin C6-222001/16/19941No College
24 Dickerson, Alex LF6-322805/26/19903Indiana
41 Erlin, Robbie RP6-019010/08/19906No College
11 France, Ty 3B6-020507/13/19941San Diego State
5 Garcia, Greg 2B6-019008/08/19896Hawaii
18 Hedges, Austin C6-120608/18/19925No College
30 Hosmer, Eric 1B6-422510/24/19899No College
3 Kinsler, Ian 2B6-020006/22/198214Missouri
46 Lauer, Eric SP6-320506/03/19952Kent State
37 Lucchesi, Joey SP6-520406/06/19932No College
13 Machado, Manny 3B6-318507/06/19928No College
25 Margevicius, Nick SP6-522006/18/19961No College
7 Margot, Manuel CF5-1118009/28/19944No College
88 Maton, Phil RP6-322003/25/19933Louisiana Tech
4 Myers, Wil LF6-320512/10/19907No College
59 Paddack, Chris SP6-4195No College
10 Renfroe, Hunter LF6-122001/28/19924Mississippi State
32 Reyes, Franmil RF6-527507/07/19952No College
64 Reyes, Gerardo RP5-1116005/13/19931No College
34 Stammen, Craig RP6-423003/09/198410No College
55 Strahm, Matt SP6-318511/12/19914No College
17 Warren, Adam RP6-122508/25/19878North Carolina
57 Wieck, Brad RP6-925510/14/19912No College
49 Wisler, Matt RP6-321509/12/19925No College
39 Yates, Kirby RP5-1021003/25/19876No College
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