|Team Outlook and Scouting Report|
SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B
At 23-21 the Padres are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 21.9 wins. If you consider winning as a clear-cut underdog or winning by 2+ as a slight favorite, or by 5+ as a favorite then they have 10 good wins but they also have 10 bad losses. They have been better than expected on the road. Their 12-10- road record is +10% better than their expected win percentage. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (9-10, 47%) is better than their expected 45% win percentage. In simulations, the Padres are a below average team and won 47.9% of the simulations played vs every other team as if they were playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#21 in the league). They have moved up from #25 in the league back on 4/19.
Their record is better than it should be. Their average run differential is -0.34 which ranks #10 in the NL, but their rank based on win percentage is #6. They are the #11 ranked team in run differential (based on all teams' road stats) and the #10 ranked team among home teams. Their average run differential in their past 12 games is -0.92.
TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):
NEXT 10 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY SUNNY
The Padres next 10 game forecast looks like 'partly sunny skies'. They have 2 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, 2 more games where they are favored by at least 53%, and just 2 games where they are a clear underdog. The rest of the games are toss ups.
The most likely scenario over the next 10 games is a record of 5-5 (24% chance). Their chances of winning 7 or more are 17.2%. At #8 in the league, they are fighting with the Cardinals for positioning. With a +0.5 advantage in projected wins over their next 10 games they have a good chance of improving their league seed. They are ahead of the Pirates by half a point. With a +0.66 advantage in projected wins over their next 10 games they have a good chance of widening the gap.
The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Padres are the 19th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Padres are playing 13 games, traveling 25171 miles crossing 33 time zones. They rank #4 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
According to Sportsline the San Diego Padres are -164 favorites but their simulated win percentage is very different and we see this as a pick with a lot of value. Get the pick for this game at Sportsline.com.
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING UP
The Padres are competing to make the playoffs and their chances are clearly on the rise. In our pre-season forecast they had a 3% chance of making the playoffs. On 4/21 they had a 0.3% chance before increasing to 17.1% on 5/12. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 9.3%. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the NL at 4.8% (20/1 odds) and a 2.4% chance of winning it all (40/1).
Strength of Schedule Getting Much Tougher
Padres' Season Forecast Changes
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|62||Allen, Austin||C||6-2||220||01/16/1994||1||No College|
|41||Erlin, Robbie||RP||6-0||190||10/08/1990||6||No College|
|11||France, Ty||3B||6-0||205||07/13/1994||1||San Diego State|
|18||Hedges, Austin||C||6-1||206||08/18/1992||5||No College|
|30||Hosmer, Eric||1B||6-4||225||10/24/1989||9||No College|
|46||Lauer, Eric||SP||6-3||205||06/03/1995||2||Kent State|
|37||Lucchesi, Joey||SP||6-5||204||06/06/1993||2||No College|
|13||Machado, Manny||3B||6-3||185||07/06/1992||8||No College|
|25||Margevicius, Nick||SP||6-5||220||06/18/1996||1||No College|
|7||Margot, Manuel||CF||5-11||180||09/28/1994||4||No College|
|88||Maton, Phil||RP||6-3||220||03/25/1993||3||Louisiana Tech|
|4||Myers, Wil||LF||6-3||205||12/10/1990||7||No College|
|59||Paddack, Chris||SP||6-4||195||No College|
|10||Renfroe, Hunter||LF||6-1||220||01/28/1992||4||Mississippi State|
|32||Reyes, Franmil||RF||6-5||275||07/07/1995||2||No College|
|64||Reyes, Gerardo||RP||5-11||160||05/13/1993||1||No College|
|34||Stammen, Craig||RP||6-4||230||03/09/1984||10||No College|
|55||Strahm, Matt||SP||6-3||185||11/12/1991||4||No College|
|17||Warren, Adam||RP||6-1||225||08/25/1987||8||North Carolina|
|57||Wieck, Brad||RP||6-9||255||10/14/1991||2||No College|
|49||Wisler, Matt||RP||6-3||215||09/12/1992||5||No College|
|39||Yates, Kirby||RP||5-10||210||03/25/1987||6||No College|