|Team Outlook and Scouting Report|
NEXT 10 GAME OUTLOOK: STORMY
The forecast for their next 10 games is not good. They are the clear underdog in 10 out of the 10 games.
The most likely scenario over the next 10 games is a record of 3-7 (26% chance). Their chances of winning 5 or more are 19.9%. At #10 in the league, they are fighting with the D-Backs for positioning. With a -1.94 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 10 games they may find themselves further behind in the league. They are ahead of the Mets by half a point. With a -1.49 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 10 games they may find the gap between them closing.
The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Pirates are just the 25th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Pirates are playing 14 games, traveling 9917 miles crossing 6 time zones. They rank #21 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
The Pittsburgh Pirates' next game is on June 2. Visit Sportsline.com to get picks, free trends and player projections for this game.
SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B
At 28-29 the Pirates are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 26 wins. If you consider winning as a clear-cut underdog or winning by 2+ as a slight favorite, or by 5+ as a favorite then they have 21 good wins vs 18 bad losses. They have been better than expected on the road. Their 17-13- road record is +15% better than their expected win percentage. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (10-12, 45%) is better than their expected 41% win percentage. In simulations where the Pirates played every other team (neutral court in playoffs) they won just 45.2% of the time (#22 in the league). Their peak rank was #14 in the league back on 4/7.
Their record is better than it should be. Their average run differential is -1.16 which ranks #13 in the NL, but their rank based on win percentage is #10. They are the #12 ranked team in run differential (based on all teams' road stats) and the #14 ranked team among home teams. Their average run differential in their past 14 games is -1.79 which ranks them #14 over this stretch, slightly worse than overall.
TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (DOWN OVERALL)
Before the season, the Pirates were projected for 78.7 points (average per simulation), and their projected points has been up and down this season. On 4/21 they had an 80.3% chance before dropping to 68.7% on 5/31. From the start of the season to now their projected point total is down to 70.4. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the NL at 2.4% (40/1 odds) and a 1.2% chance of winning it all (80/1).
Strength of Schedule Getting Tougher
Pirates' Season Forecast Changes
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|24||Archer, Chris||SP||6-2||195||09/26/1988||8||No College|
|55||Bell, Josh||1B||6-4||240||08/14/1992||4||No College|
|43||Brault, Steven||RP||6-0||195||04/29/1992||4||No College|
|53||Cabrera, Melky||RF||5-10||210||08/11/1984||15||No College|
|30||Crick, Kyle||RP||6-4||220||11/30/1992||3||No College|
|62||Davis, Rookie||RP||6-5||255||04/29/1993||2||No College|
|32||Diaz, Elias||C||6-1||220||11/17/1990||5||No College|
|26||Frazier, Adam||2B||5-10||180||12/14/1991||4||Mississippi State|
|52||Holmes, Clay||RP||6-5||225||03/27/1993||2||No College|
|49||Kingham, Nick||RP||6-5||235||11/08/1991||2||No College|
|47||Liriano, Francisco||RP||6-2||225||10/26/1983||14||No College|
|31||Lyles, Jordan||SP||6-5||230||10/19/1990||9||No College|
|6||Marte, Starling||CF||6-1||190||10/09/1988||8||No College|
|63||McRae, Alex||RP||6-2||220||04/06/1993||2||No College|
|19||Moran, Colin||3B||6-4||205||10/01/1992||4||North Carolina|
|59||Musgrove, Joe||SP||6-5||230||12/04/1992||4||No College|
|36||Osuna, Jose||3B||6-3||240||12/12/1992||3||No College|
|25||Polanco, Gregory||RF||6-5||235||09/14/1991||6||No College|
|10||Reynolds, Bryan||LF||6-3||200||No College|
|---||Rodriguez, Richard||6-4||230||03/04/1990||3||No College|
|---||Stallings, Jacob||6-4||220||12/22/1989||4||North Carolina|
|3||Tucker, Cole||SS||6-3||205||07/03/1996||1||No College|
|73||Vazquez, Felipe||RP||6-2||225||07/05/1991||5||No College|