|Team Outlook and Scouting Report|
SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B+
At 29-21 the Phillies are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 27.2 wins. They have 15 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 11 good wins (wins as clear underdog, or 2+ final margin in what was expected to be a close game, or a 5+ final margin). They have won 50% of their road games and were expected to win 50%. At home they have a 64% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 58%. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (12-8, 60%) is better than their expected 52% win percentage. The Phillies are a good team (in simulations) and won 55.8% of the simulations vs every other team playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#9 in the league). Their peak rank was #5 in the league back on 4/4.
Their average run differential is +0.56 which ranks #3 in the NL, which is the same as how they rank in win percentage. This is a relatively better road team than a home team. They are the #2 ranked team in run differential in road games, vs #7 in home games. They are trending down. Their average run differential in their past 14 games is -0.21 (#10 over this stretch).
TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):
NEXT 10 GAME OUTLOOK: STORMY
The Phillies next 10 game forecast looks rough, to say the least. They have 2 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, and just 7 games where they are a clear underdog.
The most likely scenario over the next 10 games is a record of 4-6 (25% chance). Their chances of winning 6 or more are 18.9%. At #3 in the league, they are behind the Cubs by one point. With a -1.27 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 10 games they may find themselves further behind in the league. They are ahead of the Brewers by half a point. With a -1.24 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 10 games they may find the gap between them closing.
Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Phillies are the 11th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Phillies are playing 13 games, traveling 29675 miles crossing 38 time zones. They rank #2 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
The Philadelphia Phillies' next game is on May 24. Visit Sportsline.com to get picks, free trends and player projections for this game.
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING UP
The Phillies are World Series contenders and their chances are clearly on the rise. In our pre-season forecast they had a 1.9% chance of winning it all. On 3/26 they had a 1.9% chance before increasing to 6.9% on 5/21. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 5.4%. They have a 46% chance of winning their division. They are projected to finish #3 in the conference and have a 61% chance of making the playoffs. Based on the odds, they have a 12.5% chance of winning the NL (7/1) and a 6.7% chance of winning it all (14/1). In simulations they make the World Series 12.7% of the time.
Strength of Schedule Getting Easier
Phillies' Season Forecast Changes
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|52||Alvarez, Jose||RP||5-11||190||05/06/1989||7||No College|
|51||De Los Santos, Enyel||RP||6-3||170||12/25/1995||2||No College|
|58||Dominguez, Seranthony||RP||6-1||185||11/25/1994||2||No College|
|56||Eflin, Zach||SP||6-6||211||04/08/1994||4||No College|
|48||Eickhoff, Jerad||SP||6-4||244||07/02/1990||5||No College|
|7||Franco, Maikel||3B||6-1||229||08/26/1992||6||No College|
|3||Harper, Bryce||RF||6-3||230||10/16/1992||8||No College|
|16||Hernandez, Cesar||2B||5-10||167||05/23/1990||7||No College|
|37||Herrera, Odubel||CF||5-11||206||12/29/1991||5||No College|
|17||Hoskins, Rhys||1B||6-4||240||03/17/1993||3||No College|
|22||McCutchen, Andrew||LF||5-11||195||10/10/1986||11||No College|
|50||Neris, Hector||RP||6-2||227||06/14/1989||6||No College|
|93||Neshek, Pat||RP||6-3||221||09/04/1980||13||No College|
|12||Nicasio, Juan||RP||6-4||252||08/31/1986||9||No College|
|10||Realmuto, J.T.||C||6-1||213||03/18/1991||6||No College|
|13||Rodriguez, Sean||SS||6-0||200||04/26/1985||12||No College|
|2||Segura, Jean||SS||5-10||220||03/17/1990||8||No College|
|21||Velasquez, Vince||SP||6-3||203||06/07/1992||5||No College|