|Team Outlook and Scouting Report|
SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: A
At 38-19 the Yankees are greatly exceeding their money line projected win total of 33 wins. They have been better than expected on the road. Their 17-8- road record is +15% better than their expected win percentage. Over the past 3 weeks they have played better going 15-4 in a stretch where their projected win rate was 10.9 wins. The Yankees perform very well in our power ranking simulations beating every other team 63.1% of the time (#3 in the league). They have moved up from #5 in the league back on 5/6.
Their record is better than it should be. Their average run differential is +1.39 which ranks #4 in the AL, but their rank based on win percentage is #2. They are the #4 ranked team in run differential (based on all teams' road stats). This is the same ranking they have among home teams. Based on run differential, they are trending up. Their average run differential in their past 13 games is +3 (#1 over this stretch).
TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):
NEXT 9 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY SUNNY
The forecast for their next 9 games is generally good. They have 6 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, 3 more games where they are favored by at least 53%, and no games where they are a clear underdog.
The most likely scenario over the next 9 games is a record of 6-3 (26% chance). Their chances of winning 8 or more are 8.1%. Their chances of winning their next 9 are 1%. At #2 in the league, they are behind the Twins by one point. With a +0.23 advantage in projected wins over their next 9 games they have a good chance of improving their league seed. They are in a battle with Astros in the league. With a -1.13 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 9 games they may find the gap between them closing.
Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Yankees are the 11th least fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Yankees are playing 13 games, traveling 8063 miles crossing 5 time zones. They rank #23 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
Sportsline has a free pick on the New York Yankees' next game. They are +111 underdogs and there is slight value on them to win. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is a lot of value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (DOWN OVERALL)
The Yankees are World Series contenders, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 15.2% chance of winning it all. On 3/29 they had a 19.1% chance before dropping to 6.9% on 5/9. From the start of the season to now their chances are down significantly to 11.7%. Before the start of their 3 game winning streak they were at 7.8%. They have a 56.9% chance of winning their division. They are projected to finish #2 in the conference and have a 96% chance of making the playoffs. Based on the odds, they have a 28.6% chance of winning the AL (5/2) and a 14.3% chance of winning it all (6/1). In simulations they make the World Series 21.4% of the time.
Strength of Schedule Getting Much Tougher
Yankees' Season Forecast Changes
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|53||Britton, Zack||RP||6-1||200||12/22/1987||9||No College|
|85||Cessa, Luis||RP||6-0||208||04/25/1992||4||No College|
|54||Chapman, Aroldis||RP||6-4||218||02/28/1988||10||No College|
|30||Estrada, Thairo||2B||5-10||185||02/22/1996||1||No College|
|77||Frazier, Clint||RF||5-11||212||09/06/1994||3||No College|
|11||Gardner, Brett||CF||5-11||195||08/24/1983||12||No College|
|55||German, Domingo||SP||6-2||181||08/04/1992||3||No College|
|---||Hale, David||6-2||210||09/27/1987||6||No College|
|31||Hicks, Aaron||CF||6-1||205||10/02/1989||7||No College|
|56||Holder, Jonathan||RP||6-2||232||06/09/1993||4||Mississippi State|
|48||Kahnle, Tommy||RP||6-1||230||08/07/1989||6||No College|
|38||Maybin, Cameron||RF||6-3||215||04/04/1987||13||No College|
|36||Morales, Kendrys||1B||6-1||225||06/20/1983||13||No College|
|0||Ottavino, Adam||RP||6-5||246||11/22/1985||9||No College|
|28||Romine, Austin||C||6-1||216||11/22/1988||8||No College|
|52||Sabathia, CC||SP||6-6||300||07/21/1980||19||No College|
|24||Sanchez, Gary||C||6-2||230||12/02/1992||5||No College|
|19||Tanaka, Masahiro||SP||6-3||218||11/01/1988||6||No College|
|25||Torres, Gleyber||SS||6-1||205||12/13/1996||2||No College|
|29||Urshela, Gio||3B||6-0||215||10/11/1991||4||No College|
|45||Voit, Luke||1B||6-3||255||02/13/1991||3||No College|