|Team Outlook and Scouting Report|
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (DOWN OVERALL)
The Mets are competing to make the playoffs, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 22.9% chance of making the playoffs. On 4/3 they had a 44.2% chance before dropping to 5.6% on 5/20. From the start of the season to now their chances are down significantly to 14.6%. They have an 8.5% chance of winning their division. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the NL at 4.8% (20/1 odds) and a 2.4% chance of winning it all (40/1).
Season Strength of Schedule is Relatively Hard
Mets' Season Forecast Changes
SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: C
Based on the money line projected win totals in each game, the 28-30 Mets 'should have' 30 wins. They have 16 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 13 good wins (wins as clear underdog, or 2+ final margin in what was expected to be a close game, or a 5+ final margin). Their performance on the road has left a lot to be desired. Their 13-21 road record is -11% lower than their expected win percentage. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (10-10, 50%) is under their expected 52% win percentage. In simulations, the Mets are a below average team and won 49.3% of the simulations played vs every other team as if they were playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#18 in the league). They have moved up from #20 in the league back on 5/19.
Their record should be slightly better. Their average run differential is -0.26 which ranks #10 in the NL, but their rank based on win percentage is #11. This is a relatively better home team than a road team. They are the #7 ranked team in run differential in home games, vs #14 in road games. Based on run differential, they are trending up. Their average run differential in their past 14 games is +0.36 (#7 over this stretch).
TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):
NEXT 9 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY CLOUDY
The Mets next 9 game forecast looks like a mix of 'clouds and sun'. They have 3 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, 2 more games where they are favored by at least 53%, and just 3 games where they are a clear underdog.
The most likely scenario over the next 9 games is a record of 5-4 (26% chance). Their chances of winning 7 or more are 10.8%. At #11 in the league, they are behind the Pirates by half a point. With a +1.49 advantage in projected wins over their next 9 games they have a good chance of improving their league seed. They are ahead of the Reds by one point. With a +0.98 advantage in projected wins over their next 9 games they have a good chance of widening the gap.
The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Mets are the 2nd most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Mets are playing 13 games, traveling 2178 miles crossing 3 time zones. They rank #8 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
Sportsline has a free pick on the New York Mets' next game. They are +101 underdogs and are not a good value. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is good value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|23||Altherr, Aaron||LF||6-5||223||01/14/1991||6||No College|
|49||Bashlor, Tyler||RP||6-0||195||04/16/1993||2||No College|
|30||Conforto, Michael||RF||6-1||215||03/01/1993||5||Oregon State|
|28||Davis, J.D.||3B||6-3||218||04/27/1993||3||No College|
|39||Diaz, Edwin||RP||6-3||165||03/22/1994||4||No College|
|27||Familia, Jeurys||RP||6-3||240||10/10/1989||8||No College|
|68||Font, Wilmer||SP||6-4||265||05/24/1990||5||No College|
|47||Gagnon, Drew||RP||6-4||215||06/26/1990||2||No College|
|91||Gomez, Carlos||CF||6-3||220||12/04/1985||13||No College|
|65||Gsellman, Robert||RP||6-4||205||07/18/1993||4||No College|
|11||Hechavarria, Adeiny||2B||6-0||195||04/15/1989||8||No College|
|12||Lagares, Juan||CF||6-1||215||03/17/1989||7||No College|
|67||Lugo, Seth||RP||6-4||225||11/17/1989||4||No College|
|32||Matz, Steven||SP||6-2||200||05/29/1991||5||No College|
|3||Nido, Tomas||C||6-0||211||04/12/1994||3||No College|
|40||Ramos, Wilson||C||6-1||245||08/10/1987||10||No College|
|1||Rosario, Amed||SS||6-2||190||11/20/1995||3||No College|
|33||Santiago, Hector||RP||6-0||215||12/16/1987||9||No College|
|22||Smith, Dominic||1B||6-0||226||06/15/1995||3||No College|
|34||Syndergaard, Noah||SP||6-6||240||08/29/1992||5||No College|
|44||Vargas, Jason||SP||6-0||215||02/02/1983||14||No College|
|45||Wheeler, Zack||SP||6-4||195||05/30/1990||5||No College|
|48||deGrom, Jacob||SP||6-4||180||06/19/1988||6||No College|