|Team Outlook and Scouting Report|
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING UP
The Twins are World Series contenders and their chances are clearly on the rise. In our pre-season forecast they had less than a 1% chance of winning it all. On 3/20 they had a 0.4% chance before increasing to 3.5% on 5/11. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 2.4%. They have a 75.9% chance of winning their division. They are projected to finish #2 in the conference and have a 84% chance of making the playoffs. Based on the odds, they have a 14.3% chance of winning the AL (6/1) and a 7.7% chance of winning it all (12/1). In simulations they make the World Series 9.1% of the time.
Strength of Schedule Getting Easier
Twins' Season Forecast Changes
SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: A
At 28-15 the Twins are greatly exceeding their money line projected win total of 22 wins. In the process of beating expectations they have had 16 impressive wins where they were given
Their record is slightly better than it should be. Their average run differential is +1.33 which ranks #3 in the AL, but their rank based on win percentage is #2. They are the #3 ranked team in run differential (based on all teams' road stats). This is the same ranking they have among home teams. Their average run differential in their past 14 games is +2.14.
TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):
NEXT 10 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY SUNNY
The Twins next 10 game forecast looks like 'partly sunny skies'. They have 4 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, and just 4 games where they are a clear underdog.
The most likely scenario over the next 10 games is a record of 6-4 (25% chance). Their chances of winning 8 or more are 8.5%. At #2 in the league, they are behind the Astros by half a point. With a -1.29 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 10 games they may find themselves further behind in the league. They are ahead of the Rays by one point. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Rays. There is only a 0.24 advantage in projected wins over their next 10 games.
Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Twins are the 14th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Twins are playing 13 games, traveling 18716 miles crossing 24 time zones. They rank #9 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
According to Sportsline the Minnesota Twins are -129 favorites but their simulated win percentage is very different and we see this as a pick with a lot of value. Get the pick for this game at Sportsline.com.
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|31||Adams, Austin||SP||5-11||200||08/19/1986||3||No College|
|13||Adrianza, Ehire||3B||6-1||170||08/21/1989||7||No College|
|2||Arraez, Luis||2B||5-10||155||04/09/1997||0||No College|
|64||Astudillo, Willians||C||5-9||225||10/14/1991||2||No College|
|17||Berrios, Jose||SP||6-1||185||05/27/1994||4||No College|
|25||Buxton, Byron||CF||6-2||190||12/18/1993||5||No College|
|9||Gonzalez, Marwin||3B||6-1||208||03/14/1989||8||No College|
|19||Harper, Ryne||RP||6-3||215||03/27/1989||1||No College|
|26||Kepler, Max||RF||6-4||205||02/10/1993||5||No College|
|68||Magill, Matt||RP||6-3||210||11/10/1989||4||No College|
|65||May, Trevor||RP||6-5||240||09/23/1989||5||No College|
|51||Morin, Mike||RP||6-4||220||05/03/1991||6||North Carolina|
|12||Odorizzi, Jake||SP||6-2||190||03/27/1990||8||No College|
|33||Perez, Martin||SP||6-0||200||04/04/1991||8||No College|
|35||Pineda, Michael||SP||6-7||260||01/18/1989||6||No College|
|11||Polanco, Jorge||SS||5-11||200||07/05/1993||6||No College|
|20||Rosario, Eddie||LF||6-1||180||09/28/1991||5||No College|
|22||Sano, Miguel||3B||6-4||260||05/11/1993||5||No College|
|16||Schoop, Jonathan||2B||6-1||225||10/16/1991||7||No College|