|Team Outlook and Scouting Report|
NEXT 8 GAME OUTLOOK: CLOUDY
The Brewers next 8 game forecast looks pretty dreary. They have 6 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, 2 more games where they are favored by at least 53%, and just 1 game where they are a clear underdog.
The most likely scenario over the next 8 games is a record of 5-3 (26% chance). Their chances of winning 7 or more are 8.5%. Their chances of winning their next 8 are 1%. At #4 in the league, they are behind the Phillies by half a point. There is only a 0.17 advantage in projected wins over their next 8 games so we do not expect them to pick up ground in the league. They are ahead of the D-Backs by one point. With a -0.76 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 8 games they may find the gap between them closing.
Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Brewers are the 9th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Brewers are playing 12 games, traveling 4099 miles crossing 6 time zones. They rank #20 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
Sportsline has a free pick on the Milwaukee Brewers' next game. They are -119 favorites and there is slight value on them to win. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is a lot of value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.
SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B+
At 27-21 the Brewers are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 23.8 wins. If you consider winning as a clear-cut underdog or winning by 2+ as a slight favorite, or by 5+ as a favorite then they have 14 good wins vs 11 bad losses. They have exceeded expectations in home games. Their 16-8- home record is +15% better than their expected win percentage. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (13-8, 62%) is better than their expected 50% win percentage. The Brewers are a good team (in simulations) and won 56.9% of the simulations vs every other team playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#7 in the league). They have moved up from #9 in the league back on 4/25.
Their record is better than it should be. Their average run differential is +0.27 which ranks #7 in the NL, but their rank based on win percentage is #4. They are the #7 ranked team in run differential (based on all teams' road stats). This is the same ranking they have among home teams. Based on run differential, they are trending up. Their average run differential in their past 13 games is +1.85 (#1 over this stretch).
TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (UP OVERALL)
The Brewers are World Series contenders, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 4.2% chance of winning it all. On 3/19 they had a 3.6% chance before increasing to 8.5% on 4/18. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 5.9%. They have a 34% chance of winning their division. They are projected to finish #4 in the conference and have a 78% chance of making the playoffs. Based on the odds, they have a 12.5% chance of winning the NL (7/1) and a 6.7% chance of winning it all (14/1). In simulations they make the World Series 12.8% of the time.
Strength of Schedule Getting Easier
Brewers' Season Forecast Changes
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|24||Aguilar, Jesus||1B||6-3||285||06/30/1990||6||No College|
|43||Albers, Matt||RP||6-1||260||01/20/1983||14||No College|
|3||Arcia, Orlando||SS||6-0||181||08/04/1994||4||No College|
|8||Braun, Ryan||LF||6-2||207||11/17/1983||13||Miami (FL)|
|39||Burnes, Corbin||SP||6-3||205||No College|
|6||Cain, Lorenzo||CF||6-2||205||04/13/1986||10||No College|
|45||Chacin, Jhoulys||SP||6-3||255||01/07/1988||11||No College|
|58||Claudio, Alex||RP||6-3||160||01/31/1992||6||No College|
|27||Davies, Zach||SP||6-0||165||02/07/1993||5||No College|
|16||Gamel, Ben||LF||5-11||187||05/17/1992||4||No College|
|47||Gonzalez, Gio||SP||6-0||195||09/19/1985||12||No College|
|10||Grandal, Yasmani||C||6-1||220||11/08/1988||8||Miami (FL)|
|41||Guerra, Junior||RP||5-11||234||01/16/1985||5||No College|
|71||Hader, Josh||RP||6-3||177||04/07/1994||3||No College|
|18||Hiura, Keston||2B||6-0||199||08/02/1996||1||No College|
|37||Houser, Adrian||RP||6-3||216||02/02/1993||3||No College|
|32||Jeffress, Jeremy||RP||6-0||205||09/21/1987||10||No College|
|11||Moustakas, Mike||2B||6-0||211||09/11/1988||9||No College|
|26||Nottingham, Jacob||C||6-2||219||04/03/1995||2||No College|
|51||Peralta, Freddy||SP||5-11||194||06/04/1996||2||No College|
|14||Perez, Hernan||2B||6-1||214||03/26/1991||8||No College|
|7||Thames, Eric||1B||5-11||216||11/10/1986||5||No College|
|53||Woodruff, Brandon||SP||6-4||232||02/10/1993||3||Mississippi State|
|22||Yelich, Christian||RF||6-3||200||12/05/1991||7||No College|