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Houston
Astros
Stadium Minute Maid Park
33-18 Overall | AL WEST 1st
TEAM STATSAVGRHRERA
Astros.278270903.42
Schedule
Regular season
Tue? 5/21
vs
White Sox
W5-1
Wed? 5/22
vs
White Sox
L4-9
Thu? 5/23
vs
White Sox
L0-4
Fri? 5/24
vs
Red Sox
Gametracker
Sat? 5/25
vs
Red Sox
FOX7:15pm
Sun? 5/26
vs
Red Sox
2:10pm
Mon? 5/27
vs
Cubs
2:10pm
Tue? 5/28
vs
Cubs
8:10pm
Wed? 5/29
vs
Cubs
ESPN8:10pm
Fri? 5/31
@
Athletics
10:07pm
Team Outlook and Scouting Report

SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: A-

At 33-18 the Astros are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 31.4 wins. They have 16 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 15 good wins (wins as clear underdog, or 2+ final margin in what was expected to be a close game, or a 5+ final margin). They have exceeded expectations in home games. Their 18-6- home record is +11% better than their expected win percentage. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (15-5, 75%) is better than their expected 64% win percentage. The Astros perform very well in our power ranking simulations beating every other team 65.4% of the time (#1 in the league). Their peak sim% was 66.5% back on 5/22.

Their record should be slightly better. Their average run differential is +1.76 which ranks #2 in the AL, but their rank based on win percentage is #3. They are the #2 ranked team in run differential (based on all teams' road stats) and the #1 ranked team among home teams. Their average run differential in their past 13 games is +3.15.

TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):

Sportsline not only has a pick on every game and line our Experts provide winning Daily Fantasy Optimal Lineups every day.

NEXT 10 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY SUNNY

The forecast for their next 10 games is generally good. They have 4 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, 6 more games where they are favored by at least 53%, and no games where they are a clear underdog.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game

MAY 24
CLOSE GAME
54% BOS
--
MAY 25
CLOSE GAME
53% BOS
--
MAY 26
LIKELY WIN
64% BOS
--
MAY 27
LIKELY WIN
66% CHC
--
MAY 28
CLOSE GAME
54% CHC
--
MAY 29
LIKELY WIN
61% CHC
--
MAY 31
CLOSE GAME
54% @OAK
1633 miles
JUN 1
CLOSE GAME
54% @OAK
-- miles
JUN 2
LIKELY WIN
62% @OAK
-- miles
JUN 3
CLOSE GAME
55% @SEA
681 miles

The most likely scenario over the next 10 games is a record of 6-4 (25% chance). Their chances of winning 8 or more are 11.9%. At #3 in the league, they are fighting with the Yankees for positioning. Their projected wins (5.73) over the next 10 games is virtually the same so we do not expect a change in standings in the near term. They are ahead of the Rays by 2 points. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Rays. There is only a -0.21 advantage in projected wins over their next 10 games.

The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Astros are the 9th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Astros are playing 14 games, traveling 21150 miles crossing 24 time zones. They rank #8 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

The Houston Astros' next game is on May 24. Visit Sportsline.com to get picks, free trends and player projections for this game.

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (UP OVERALL)

The Astros are World Series contenders, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 18.9% chance of winning it all. On 4/8 they had an 11.5% chance before increasing to 23% on 5/23. From the start of the season to now their chances are up to 21.7%. They are basically a lock to win the division at 99.3%. Based on the odds, they have a 36.4% chance of winning the AL (7/4) and a 20% chance of winning it all (4/1). In simulations they make the World Series 38.3% of the time.

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Easier

  • Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 48% #7 Easiest
  • Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 52% #7 Toughest

Astros' Season Forecast Changes

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.

Roster
NoPlayerPosHeightWeightBirthdateEXPCOLLEGE
23 Brantley, Michael LF6-221005/15/198711No College
2 Bregman, Alex 3B6-019203/30/19944LSU
28 Chirinos, Robinson C6-121006/05/19848No College
45 Cole, Gerrit SP6-422509/08/19907UCLA
1 Correa, Carlos SS6-421809/22/19945No College
47 Devenski, Chris RP6-320911/13/19904No College
16 Diaz, Aledmys 2B6-119508/01/19904No College
10 Gurriel, Yuli 1B6-020206/09/19844No College
36 Harris, Will RP6-424908/28/19848LSU
39 James, Josh RP6-322203/08/19932No College
18 Kemp, Tony CF5-616310/31/19914Vanderbilt
6 Marisnick, Jake CF6-422803/30/19917No College
29 Martin, Corbin SP6-221412/28/19951Texas A&M
20 Miley, Wade SP6-219511/13/19869No College
54 Osuna, Roberto RP6-223002/07/19955No College
41 Peacock, Brad SP6-120802/02/19888No College
55 Pressly, Ryan RP6-221012/15/19887No College
22 Reddick, Josh RF6-219502/19/198711No College
52 Rodgers, Brady SP6-221009/17/19902Arizona State
30 Rondon, Hector RP6-323002/26/19887No College
4 Springer, George CF6-322109/19/19896Connecticut
12 Stassi, Max C5-1020003/15/19917No College
59 Valdez, Framber RP5-1122211/19/19932No College
35 Verlander, Justin SP6-522502/20/198315No College
13 White, Tyler DH5-1122110/29/19904No College
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