|Team Outlook and Scouting Report|
SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: A-
At 33-18 the Astros are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 31.4 wins. They have 16 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 15 good wins (wins as clear underdog, or 2+ final margin in what was expected to be a close game, or a 5+ final margin). They have exceeded expectations in home games. Their 18-6- home record is +11% better than their expected win percentage. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (15-5, 75%) is better than their expected 64% win percentage. The Astros perform very well in our power ranking simulations beating every other team 65.4% of the time (#1 in the league). Their peak sim% was 66.5% back on 5/22.
Their record should be slightly better. Their average run differential is +1.76 which ranks #2 in the AL, but their rank based on win percentage is #3. They are the #2 ranked team in run differential (based on all teams' road stats) and the #1 ranked team among home teams. Their average run differential in their past 13 games is +3.15.
TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):
NEXT 10 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY SUNNY
The forecast for their next 10 games is generally good. They have 4 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, 6 more games where they are favored by at least 53%, and no games where they are a clear underdog.
The most likely scenario over the next 10 games is a record of 6-4 (25% chance). Their chances of winning 8 or more are 11.9%. At #3 in the league, they are fighting with the Yankees for positioning. Their projected wins (5.73) over the next 10 games is virtually the same so we do not expect a change in standings in the near term. They are ahead of the Rays by 2 points. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Rays. There is only a -0.21 advantage in projected wins over their next 10 games.
The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Astros are the 9th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Astros are playing 14 games, traveling 21150 miles crossing 24 time zones. They rank #8 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
The Houston Astros' next game is on May 24. Visit Sportsline.com to get picks, free trends and player projections for this game.
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (UP OVERALL)
The Astros are World Series contenders, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 18.9% chance of winning it all. On 4/8 they had an 11.5% chance before increasing to 23% on 5/23. From the start of the season to now their chances are up to 21.7%. They are basically a lock to win the division at 99.3%. Based on the odds, they have a 36.4% chance of winning the AL (7/4) and a 20% chance of winning it all (4/1). In simulations they make the World Series 38.3% of the time.
Strength of Schedule Getting Much Easier
Astros' Season Forecast Changes
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|23||Brantley, Michael||LF||6-2||210||05/15/1987||11||No College|
|28||Chirinos, Robinson||C||6-1||210||06/05/1984||8||No College|
|1||Correa, Carlos||SS||6-4||218||09/22/1994||5||No College|
|47||Devenski, Chris||RP||6-3||209||11/13/1990||4||No College|
|16||Diaz, Aledmys||2B||6-1||195||08/01/1990||4||No College|
|10||Gurriel, Yuli||1B||6-0||202||06/09/1984||4||No College|
|39||James, Josh||RP||6-3||222||03/08/1993||2||No College|
|6||Marisnick, Jake||CF||6-4||228||03/30/1991||7||No College|
|29||Martin, Corbin||SP||6-2||214||12/28/1995||1||Texas A&M|
|20||Miley, Wade||SP||6-2||195||11/13/1986||9||No College|
|54||Osuna, Roberto||RP||6-2||230||02/07/1995||5||No College|
|41||Peacock, Brad||SP||6-1||208||02/02/1988||8||No College|
|55||Pressly, Ryan||RP||6-2||210||12/15/1988||7||No College|
|22||Reddick, Josh||RF||6-2||195||02/19/1987||11||No College|
|52||Rodgers, Brady||SP||6-2||210||09/17/1990||2||Arizona State|
|30||Rondon, Hector||RP||6-3||230||02/26/1988||7||No College|
|12||Stassi, Max||C||5-10||200||03/15/1991||7||No College|
|59||Valdez, Framber||RP||5-11||222||11/19/1993||2||No College|
|35||Verlander, Justin||SP||6-5||225||02/20/1983||15||No College|
|13||White, Tyler||DH||5-11||221||10/29/1990||4||No College|