|Team Outlook and Scouting Report|
NEXT 10 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY CLOUDY
The Rockies next 10 game forecast looks like a mix of 'clouds and sun'. They have 2 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, 2 more games where they are favored by at least 53%, and just 5 games where they are a clear underdog.
The most likely scenario over the next 10 games is a record of 5-5 (24% chance). Their chances of winning 7 or more are 16%. At #6 in the league, they are behind the Braves by 1.5 points. With a -0.92 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 10 games they may find themselves further behind in the league. They are ahead of the D-Backs by one point. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the D-Backs. Their projected wins (4.93) over the next 10 games is virtually the same so we do not expect a change in standings in the near term.
Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Rockies are the 5th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Rockies are playing 14 games, traveling 7649 miles crossing 11 time zones. They rank #10 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
Sportsline has a free pick on the Colorado Rockies' next game. They are +145 underdogs and are not a good value. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is good value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.
SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B+
At 33-30 the Rockies are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 31.4 wins. If you consider winning as a clear-cut underdog or winning by 2+ as a slight favorite, or by 5+ as a favorite then they have 16 good wins vs 13 bad losses. They have won 45% of their road games and were expected to win 46%. At home they have a 60% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 54%. Over the past 3 weeks they have played better going 13-7 in a stretch where their projected win rate was 10.2 wins. The Rockies should be a slightly above average team based on simulations where they won 53.5% of the simulations played vs every other team as if they were playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#10 in the league). They have moved up from #20 in the league back on 4/21.
Their average run differential is +0.24 which ranks #6 in the NL, which is the same as how they rank in win percentage. This is a relatively better road team than a home team. They are the #5 ranked team in run differential in road games, vs #9 in home games. Their average run differential in their past 13 games is +1.62 which ranks them #4 over this stretch, slightly better than overall.
TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (UP OVERALL)
The Rockies are competing to make the playoffs, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 16.9% chance of making the playoffs. On 3/30 they had a 48.2% chance before dropping to 0.4% on 4/14. From the start of the season to now their chances are up to 20.8%. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the NL at 3.2% (30/1 odds) and a 1.6% chance of winning it all (60/1).
Strength of Schedule Getting Much Tougher
Rockies' Season Forecast Changes
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|28||Arenado, Nolan||3B||6-2||220||04/16/1991||7||No College|
|35||Bettis, Chad||RP||6-0||209||04/26/1989||7||Texas Tech|
|19||Blackmon, Charlie||RF||6-3||215||07/01/1986||9||Georgia Tech|
|26||Dahl, David||LF||6-2||190||04/01/1994||3||No College|
|71||Davis, Wade||RP||6-5||225||09/07/1985||11||No College|
|20||Desmond, Ian||CF||6-3||215||09/20/1985||11||No College|
|37||Diaz, Jairo||RP||6-0||242||05/27/1991||4||No College|
|54||Estevez, Carlos||RP||6-6||264||12/28/1992||3||No College|
|34||Hoffman, Jeff||SP||6-5||209||01/08/1993||4||East Carolina|
|22||Iannetta, Chris||C||6-0||232||04/08/1983||14||North Carolina|
|23||Lambert, Peter||SP||6-2||185||No College|
|48||Marquez, German||SP||6-1||220||02/22/1995||4||No College|
|51||McGee, Jake||RP||6-4||237||08/06/1986||10||No College|
|24||McMahon, Ryan||2B||6-2||216||12/14/1994||3||No College|
|9||Murphy, Daniel||1B||6-1||221||04/01/1985||11||No College|
|18||Oh, Seung-Hwan||RP||5-10||205||07/15/1982||4||No College|
|7||Rodgers, Brendan||2B||6-0||209||08/09/1996||1||No College|
|49||Senzatela, Antonio||SP||6-1||230||01/21/1995||3||No College|
|29||Shaw, Bryan||RP||6-1||225||11/08/1987||9||No College|
|27||Story, Trevor||SS||6-2||212||11/15/1992||4||No College|
|15||Tapia, Raimel||LF||6-3||180||02/04/1994||4||No College|
|14||Wolters, Tony||C||5-10||194||06/09/1992||4||No College|