|Team Outlook and Scouting Report|
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING UP
Before the season, the Reds were projected for 66.5 points (average per simulation) and things are looking positive. On 4/9 they had a 60.6% chance before increasing to 78.6% on 6/1. From the start of the season to now their chances are up to 76.7%. The playoffs are not likely with their 4.4% chance and a projected #12 finish in the conference. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the NL at 1% (100/1 odds) and a 0.5% chance of winning it all (200/1).
Strength of Schedule Getting Much Easier
Reds' Season Forecast Changes
SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: C
At 28-33 the Reds are behind their money line projected win total of 29.6 wins. If you consider winning as a clear-cut underdog or winning by 2+ as a slight favorite, or by 5+ as a favorite then they have 21 good wins vs 14 bad losses. They have won 42% of their road games and were expected to win 44%. At home they have a 50% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 53%. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (9-9, 50%) is better than their expected 48% win percentage. In simulations, the Reds are a below average team and won 47.1% of the simulations played vs every other team as if they were playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#21 in the league). They have moved up from #26 in the league back on 4/23.
Their record should be better. Their average run differential is +0.61 which ranks #3 in the NL, but their rank based on win percentage is #12. They are the #4 ranked team in run differential (based on all teams' road stats). This is the same ranking they have among home teams. They are trending down. Their average run differential in their past 12 games is +1 (#6 over this stretch).
TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):
NEXT 9 GAME OUTLOOK: STORMY
The forecast for their next 9 games is not good. They have 2 games where they are favored by >60% of the simulations, 2 more 'toss up' games, and 6 games where they are a clear underdog.
The most likely scenario over the next 9 games is a record of 4-5 (26% chance). Their chances of winning 6 or more are 19%. At #12 in the league, they are behind the Mets by 1.5 points. With a -0.8 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 9 games they may find themselves further behind in the league. They are ahead of the Nationals by half a point. With a -1.52 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 9 games they may find the gap between them closing.
Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Reds are the 12th least fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Reds are playing 13 games, traveling 4049 miles crossing 2 time zones. They rank #28 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
The Cincinnati Reds' next game is on June 7. Visit Sportsline.com to get picks, free trends and player projections for this game.
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|16||Barnhart, Tucker||C||5-11||192||01/07/1991||6||No College|
|67||Bowman, Matt||RP||6-0||185||05/31/1991||4||No College|
|58||Castillo, Luis||SP||6-2||190||12/12/1992||3||No College|
|22||Dietrich, Derek||2B||6-0||212||07/18/1989||7||Georgia Tech|
|32||Duke, Zach||RP||6-2||210||04/19/1983||15||No College|
|50||Garrett, Amir||RP||6-5||228||05/03/1992||3||No College|
|37||Hernandez, David||RP||6-3||245||05/13/1985||10||No College|
|48||Hughes, Jared||RP||6-7||240||07/04/1985||9||No College|
|4||Iglesias, Jose||SS||5-11||185||01/05/1990||8||No College|
|26||Iglesias, Raisel||RP||6-2||188||01/04/1990||5||No College|
|21||Lorenzen, Michael||RP||6-3||217||01/04/1992||5||No College|
|30||Mahle, Tyler||SP||6-3||210||09/29/1994||3||No College|
|53||Peralta, Wandy||RP||6-0||220||07/27/1991||4||No College|
|9||Peraza, Jose||2B||6-0||196||04/30/1994||5||No College|
|66||Puig, Yasiel||RF||6-2||240||12/07/1990||7||No College|
|7||Suarez, Eugenio||3B||5-11||213||07/18/1991||6||No College|
|17||VanMeter, Josh||LF||5-11||165||03/10/1995||1||No College|
|19||Votto, Joey||1B||6-2||220||09/10/1983||13||No College|
|33||Winker, Jesse||LF||6-3||215||08/17/1993||3||No College|