|Team Outlook and Scouting Report|
SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: A-
At 37-27 the Cubs are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 34.2 wins. If you consider winning as a clear-cut underdog or winning by 2+ as a slight favorite, or by 5+ as a favorite then they have 14 good wins but they also have 14 bad losses. They have exceeded expectations in home games. Their 24-11- home record is +12% better than their expected win percentage. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (11-10, 52%) is under their expected 54% win percentage. The Cubs are a good team (in simulations) and won 57.5% of the simulations vs every other team playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#8 in the league). Their peak rank was #3 in the league back on 5/6.
Their average run differential is +1.03 which ranks #2 in the NL, which is the same as how they rank in win percentage. They are the #3 ranked team in run differential (based on all teams' road stats) and the #2 ranked team among home teams. They are trending down. Their average run differential in their past 13 games is +0.92 (#5 over this stretch).
TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):
NEXT 10 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY SUNNY
The Cubs next 10 game forecast looks like 'partly sunny skies'. They have 3 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, 2 more games where they are favored by at least 53%, and just 5 games where they are a clear underdog.
The most likely scenario over the next 10 games is a record of 5-5 (27% chance). Their chances of winning 7 or more are 16.9%. At #2 in the league, they are behind the Dodgers by 7 points. With a -1.73 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 10 games they may find themselves further behind in the league. They are in a battle with Brewers in the league. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Brewers. There is only a 0.14 advantage in projected wins over their next 10 games.
The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Cubs are just the 24th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Cubs are playing 14 games, traveling 18534 miles crossing 21 time zones. They rank #9 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
Sportsline has a free pick on the Chicago Cubs' next game. They are +117 underdogs and there is slight value on them to win. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is a lot of value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG
The Cubs are World Series contenders, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 7.8% chance of winning it all. On 4/15 they had a 3.1% chance before increasing to 16% on 5/6. From the start of the season to now their chances are up to 8.2%. They have a 50.7% chance of winning their division. They are projected to finish #2 in the conference and have a 91% chance of making the playoffs. Based on the odds, they have a 14.3% chance of winning the NL (6/1) and a 7.7% chance of winning it all (12/1). In simulations they make the World Series 19.1% of the time.
Strength of Schedule Getting Tougher
Cubs' Season Forecast Changes
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|5||Almora, Albert||CF||6-2||190||04/16/1994||4||No College|
|9||Baez, Javier||SS||6-0||190||12/01/1992||6||No College|
|13||Bote, David||3B||6-1||210||04/07/1993||2||No College|
|29||Brach, Brad||RP||6-4||205||04/12/1986||9||No College|
|17||Bryant, Kris||3B||6-5||230||01/04/1992||5||No College|
|7||Caratini, Victor||C||6-1||215||08/17/1993||3||No College|
|32||Chatwood, Tyler||RP||5-11||200||12/16/1989||8||No College|
|41||Cishek, Steve||RP||6-6||217||06/18/1986||10||No College|
|40||Contreras, Willson||C||6-1||212||05/13/1992||4||No College|
|11||Darvish, Yu||SP||6-5||216||08/16/1986||7||No College|
|3||Descalso, Daniel||2B||5-10||200||10/19/1986||10||No College|
|6||Edwards, Carl||RP||6-3||170||09/03/1991||5||No College|
|2||Gonzalez, Carlos||RF||6-1||220||10/17/1985||12||No College|
|35||Hamels, Cole||SP||6-4||205||12/27/1983||14||No College|
|28||Hendricks, Kyle||SP||6-3||190||12/07/1989||6||No College|
|22||Heyward, Jason||RF||6-5||240||08/09/1989||10||No College|
|20||Kintzler, Brandon||RP||6-0||194||08/01/1984||10||No College|
|34||Lester, Jon||SP||6-4||240||01/07/1984||14||No College|
|38||Montgomery, Mike||RP||6-5||215||07/01/1989||5||No College|
|62||Quintana, Jose||SP||6-1||220||01/24/1989||8||No College|
|44||Rizzo, Anthony||1B||6-3||240||08/08/1989||9||No College|
|27||Russell, Addison||2B||6-0||200||01/23/1994||5||No College|
|56||Ryan, Kyle||RP||6-5||215||09/25/1991||5||No College|
|46||Strop, Pedro||RP||6-1||220||06/13/1985||11||No College|