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Boston
Red Sox
Stadium Fenway Park
27-23 Overall | AL EAST 3rd
TEAM STATSAVGRHRERA
Red Sox.258267714.32
Schedule
Regular season
Wed? 5/22
@
Blue Jays
W?/ 136-5
Thu? 5/23
@
Blue Jays
W8-2
Fri? 5/24
@
Astros
Gametracker
Sat? 5/25
@
Astros
FOX7:15pm
Sun? 5/26
@
Astros
2:10pm
Mon? 5/27
vs
Indians
ESPN4:05pm
Tue? 5/28
vs
Indians
7:10pm
Wed? 5/29
vs
Indians
6:10pm
Thu? 5/30
@
Yankees
7:05pm
Fri? 5/31
@
Yankees
7:05pm
Team Outlook and Scouting Report

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (DOWN OVERALL)

The Red Sox are World Series contenders, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 10.6% chance of winning it all. On 3/27 they had an 11.1% chance before dropping to 1.5% on 4/29. From the start of the season to now their chances are down significantly to 6.9%. They have a 24.6% chance of winning their division. They are projected to finish #5 in the conference and have a 80% chance of making the playoffs. Based on the odds, they have a 20% chance of winning the AL (4/1) and an 11.1% chance of winning it all (8/1). In simulations they make the World Series 14.2% of the time.

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Tougher

  • Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 51% #4 Toughest
  • Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 46% #5 Easiest

Red Sox's Season Forecast Changes

Sportsline not only has a pick on every game and line our Experts provide winning Daily Fantasy Optimal Lineups every day.

SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: C

Based on the money line projected win totals in each game, the 27-23 Red Sox 'should have' 30 wins. They have 21 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 11 good wins (wins as clear underdog, or 2+ final margin in what was expected to be a close game, or a 5+ final margin). They have won 52% of their road games and were expected to win 57%. At home they have a 57% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 62%. Over the past 3 weeks they have played better going 13-6 in a stretch where their projected win rate was 11.5 wins. The Red Sox are a good team (in simulations) and won 58.6% of the simulations vs every other team playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#6 in the league). They have moved up from #17 in the league back on 4/24.

Their average run differential is +0.64 which ranks #5 in the AL, which is the same as how they rank in win percentage. This is a relatively better home team than a road team. They are the #2 ranked team in run differential in home games, vs #8 in road games. Their average run differential in their past 12 games is +2.58 which ranks them #3 over this stretch, slightly better than overall.

TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):

NEXT 10 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY SUNNY

The Red Sox next 10 game forecast looks like 'partly sunny skies'. They have 2 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, 2 more games where they are favored by at least 53%, and just 3 games where they are a clear underdog. The rest of the games are toss ups.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game

MAY 24
CLOSE GAME
46% @HOU
1302 miles
MAY 25
CLOSE GAME
47% @HOU
-- miles
MAY 26
LIKELY LOSS
36% @HOU
-- miles
MAY 27
CLOSE GAME
57% CLE
1603 miles
MAY 28
LIKELY WIN
63% CLE
--
MAY 29
LIKELY WIN
61% CLE
--
MAY 30
CLOSE GAME
59% @NYY
180 miles
MAY 31
CLOSE GAME
49% @NYY
-- miles
JUN 1
CLOSE GAME
49% @NYY
-- miles
JUN 2
LIKELY LOSS
40% @NYY
-- miles

The most likely scenario over the next 10 games is a record of 5-5 (24% chance). Their chances of winning 7 or more are 18.5%. At #5 in the league, they are behind the Rays by 3.5 points. With a -0.87 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 10 games they may find themselves further behind in the league. They are ahead of the Rangers by 1.5 points. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Rangers. There is only a -0.24 advantage in projected wins over their next 10 games.

The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Red Sox are the 19th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Red Sox are playing 14 games, traveling 14427 miles crossing 9 time zones. They rank #15 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

The Boston Red Sox's next game is on May 24. Visit Sportsline.com to get picks, free trends and player projections for this game.

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.

Roster
NoPlayerPosHeightWeightBirthdateEXPCOLLEGE
32 Barnes, Matt RP6-421306/17/19906Connecticut
16 Benintendi, Andrew LF5-918707/06/19944Arkansas
50 Betts, Mookie RF5-917710/07/19926No College
2 Bogaerts, Xander SS6-221510/01/19927No College
19 Bradley, Jackie CF5-1019804/19/19907South Carolina
70 Brasier, Ryan RP6-022508/26/19873No College
54 Brewer, Colten RP6-423010/29/19922No College
23 Chavis, Michael 2B5-1021608/11/19951No College
11 Devers, Rafael 3B6-023710/24/19963No College
37 Hembree, Heath RP6-422301/13/19897No College
56 Lakins, Travis RP6-418006/29/19941Ohio State
3 Leon, Sandy C5-1025003/13/19898No College
28 Martinez, J.D. DH6-322008/21/19879No College
18 Moreland, Mitch 1B6-324809/06/198510Mississippi State
36 Nunez, Eduardo 2B6-019506/15/198710No College
25 Pearce, Steve 1B5-1120004/13/198313South Carolina
22 Porcello, Rick SP6-520212/27/198811No College
10 Price, David SP6-521008/26/198512Vanderbilt
57 Rodriguez, Eduardo SP6-220504/07/19935No College
41 Sale, Chris SP6-618103/30/198910No College
7 Vazquez, Christian C5-920108/21/19905No College
76 Velazquez, Hector SP6-022411/26/19883No College
64 Walden, Marcus RP6-019509/13/19882No College
65 Weber, Ryan RP6-117508/12/19905No College
44 Workman, Brandon RP6-525008/13/19885Texas
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