|Team Outlook and Scouting Report|
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (DOWN OVERALL)
The Red Sox are World Series contenders, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 10.6% chance of winning it all. On 3/27 they had an 11.1% chance before dropping to 1.5% on 4/29. From the start of the season to now their chances are down significantly to 6.9%. They have a 24.6% chance of winning their division. They are projected to finish #5 in the conference and have a 80% chance of making the playoffs. Based on the odds, they have a 20% chance of winning the AL (4/1) and an 11.1% chance of winning it all (8/1). In simulations they make the World Series 14.2% of the time.
Strength of Schedule Getting Much Tougher
Red Sox's Season Forecast Changes
SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: C
Based on the money line projected win totals in each game, the 27-23 Red Sox 'should have' 30 wins. They have 21 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 11 good wins (wins as clear underdog, or 2+ final margin in what was expected to be a close game, or a 5+ final margin). They have won 52% of their road games and were expected to win 57%. At home they have a 57% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 62%. Over the past 3 weeks they have played better going 13-6 in a stretch where their projected win rate was 11.5 wins. The Red Sox are a good team (in simulations) and won 58.6% of the simulations vs every other team playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#6 in the league). They have moved up from #17 in the league back on 4/24.
Their average run differential is +0.64 which ranks #5 in the AL, which is the same as how they rank in win percentage. This is a relatively better home team than a road team. They are the #2 ranked team in run differential in home games, vs #8 in road games. Their average run differential in their past 12 games is +2.58 which ranks them #3 over this stretch, slightly better than overall.
TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):
NEXT 10 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY SUNNY
The Red Sox next 10 game forecast looks like 'partly sunny skies'. They have 2 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, 2 more games where they are favored by at least 53%, and just 3 games where they are a clear underdog. The rest of the games are toss ups.
The most likely scenario over the next 10 games is a record of 5-5 (24% chance). Their chances of winning 7 or more are 18.5%. At #5 in the league, they are behind the Rays by 3.5 points. With a -0.87 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 10 games they may find themselves further behind in the league. They are ahead of the Rangers by 1.5 points. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Rangers. There is only a -0.24 advantage in projected wins over their next 10 games.
The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Red Sox are the 19th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Red Sox are playing 14 games, traveling 14427 miles crossing 9 time zones. They rank #15 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
The Boston Red Sox's next game is on May 24. Visit Sportsline.com to get picks, free trends and player projections for this game.
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|50||Betts, Mookie||RF||5-9||177||10/07/1992||6||No College|
|2||Bogaerts, Xander||SS||6-2||215||10/01/1992||7||No College|
|19||Bradley, Jackie||CF||5-10||198||04/19/1990||7||South Carolina|
|70||Brasier, Ryan||RP||6-0||225||08/26/1987||3||No College|
|54||Brewer, Colten||RP||6-4||230||10/29/1992||2||No College|
|23||Chavis, Michael||2B||5-10||216||08/11/1995||1||No College|
|11||Devers, Rafael||3B||6-0||237||10/24/1996||3||No College|
|37||Hembree, Heath||RP||6-4||223||01/13/1989||7||No College|
|56||Lakins, Travis||RP||6-4||180||06/29/1994||1||Ohio State|
|3||Leon, Sandy||C||5-10||250||03/13/1989||8||No College|
|28||Martinez, J.D.||DH||6-3||220||08/21/1987||9||No College|
|18||Moreland, Mitch||1B||6-3||248||09/06/1985||10||Mississippi State|
|36||Nunez, Eduardo||2B||6-0||195||06/15/1987||10||No College|
|25||Pearce, Steve||1B||5-11||200||04/13/1983||13||South Carolina|
|22||Porcello, Rick||SP||6-5||202||12/27/1988||11||No College|
|57||Rodriguez, Eduardo||SP||6-2||205||04/07/1993||5||No College|
|41||Sale, Chris||SP||6-6||181||03/30/1989||10||No College|
|7||Vazquez, Christian||C||5-9||201||08/21/1990||5||No College|
|76||Velazquez, Hector||SP||6-0||224||11/26/1988||3||No College|
|64||Walden, Marcus||RP||6-0||195||09/13/1988||2||No College|
|65||Weber, Ryan||RP||6-1||175||08/12/1990||5||No College|