|Team Outlook and Scouting Report|
NEXT 10 GAME OUTLOOK: STORMY
The Orioles next 10 game forecast looks rough, to say the least. They have 2 games where they are favored by >60% of the simulations, and 8 games where they are a clear underdog.
The most likely scenario over the next 10 games is a record of 3-7 (25% chance). Their chances of winning 5 or more are 26.3%. At #15 in the league, they are behind the Royals by one point. With a -1.2 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 10 games they may find themselves further behind in the league.
The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Orioles are the 10th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Orioles are playing 14 games, traveling 25404 miles crossing 30 time zones. They rank #4 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
Sportsline has a free pick on the Baltimore Orioles' next game. They are +190 underdogs and are not a good value. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is good value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.
SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: F
Based on the money line projected win totals in each game, the 19-44 Orioles 'should have' 23 wins. They have 19 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 18 good wins (wins as clear underdog, or 2+ final margin in what was expected to be a close game, or a 5+ final margin). They have come up especially short at home. Their 8-23- home record is -14% lower than their expected win percentage. Losers of 3 in a row they have a 57.8% chance of seeing that extend to 5 straight. In simulations where the Orioles played every other team (neutral court in playoffs) they won just 33.7% of the time (#29 in the league). Their peak sim% was 37.6% back on 4/17.
Their average run differential is -1.95 which ranks #15 in the AL, which is the same as how they rank in win percentage. They are the #15 ranked team in run differential (based on all teams' road stats) and the #14 ranked team among home teams. Based on run differential, they are trending up. Their average run differential in their past 12 games is -1.08 (#12 over this stretch).
TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG
Before the season, the Orioles were projected for 55.7 points (average per simulation), and their projected points has been up and down this season. On 3/24 they had a 52.5% chance before increasing to 60.9% on 4/16. Their current chances are at 55.6%.
Strength of Schedule Getting Much Easier
Orioles' Season Forecast Changes
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|57||Alberto, Hanser||2B||5-11||170||10/17/1992||4||No College|
|43||Armstrong, Shawn||RP||6-2||225||09/11/1990||5||East Carolina|
|48||Bleier, Richard||RP||6-3||215||04/16/1987||4||No College|
|9||Broxton, Keon||LF||6-4||198||05/07/1990||5||No College|
|37||Bundy, Dylan||SP||6-1||225||11/15/1992||5||No College|
|50||Castro, Miguel||RP||6-7||205||12/24/1994||5||No College|
|19||Davis, Chris||1B||6-3||245||03/17/1986||12||No College|
|51||Fry, Paul||RP||6-0||205||07/26/1992||2||No College|
|60||Givens, Mychal||RP||6-0||230||05/13/1990||5||No College|
|41||Hess, David||SP||6-1||210||07/10/1993||2||No College|
|70||Lucas, Josh||RP||6-5||210||11/05/1990||3||No College|
|16||Mancini, Trey||RF||6-4||230||03/18/1992||4||Notre Dame|
|67||Means, John||SP||6-3||230||04/24/1993||2||West Virginia|
|39||Nunez, Renato||DH||6-1||220||04/04/1994||4||No College|
|58||Phillips, Evan||RP||6-2||215||09/11/1994||2||No College|
|14||Ruiz, Rio||3B||6-1||215||05/22/1994||4||No College|
|25||Santander, Anthony||RF||6-2||225||10/19/1994||3||No College|
|28||Severino, Pedro||C||6-1||219||07/20/1993||5||No College|
|15||Sisco, Chance||C||6-2||195||02/24/1995||3||No College|
|2||Villar, Jonathan||2B||6-1||215||05/02/1991||7||No College|
|64||Ynoa, Gabriel||RP||6-2||220||05/26/1993||3||No College|