|Team Outlook and Scouting Report|
NEXT 10 GAME OUTLOOK: BRIGHT
The forecast for their next 10 games is very good. They have 4 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, 4 more games where they are favored by at least 53%, and no games where they are a clear underdog. The rest of the games are toss ups.
The most likely scenario over the next 10 games is a record of 6-4 (25% chance). Their chances of winning 8 or more are 16.6%. At #5 in the league, they are behind the Brewers by half a point. With a +0.56 advantage in projected wins over their next 10 games they have a good chance of improving their league seed. They are ahead of the Rockies by 1.5 points. With a +1.2 advantage in projected wins over their next 10 games they have a good chance of widening the gap.
Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Braves are the 20th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Braves are playing 14 games, traveling 4153 miles crossing no time zones. They rank #30 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
Sportsline has a free pick on the Atlanta Braves' next game. They are -132 favorites and are not a good value. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is good value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.
SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B
At 33-28 the Braves are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 32.2 wins. If you consider winning as a clear-cut underdog or winning by 2+ as a slight favorite, or by 5+ as a favorite then they have 18 good wins vs 17 bad losses. They have won 57% of their road games and were expected to win 49%. At home they have a 52% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 56%. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (12-7, 63%) is better than their expected 55% win percentage. The Braves should be a slightly above average team based on simulations where they won 51.3% of the simulations played vs every other team as if they were playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#15 in the league). Their peak rank was #11 in the league back on 4/22.
Their record is better than it should be. Their average run differential is +0.2 which ranks #7 in the NL, but their rank based on win percentage is #5. This is a relatively better road team than a home team. They are the #4 ranked team in run differential in road games, vs #9 in home games. Their average run differential in their past 11 games is -0.27.
TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG
The Braves are contenders to win the NL, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 3.3% chance of making the World Series. On 4/10 they had a 4.8% chance before dropping to 1.3% on 5/10. Their current chances are at 3.2%. They have a 29% chance of winning their division. They are projected to finish #5 in the conference and have a 45% chance of making the playoffs. Based on the odds, they have an 11.1% chance of winning the NL (8/1) and a 5.9% chance of winning it all (16/1). In simulations they win the World Series 0.9% of the time.
Season Strength of Schedule is Relatively Easy
Braves' Season Forecast Changes
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|13||Acuna, Ronald||LF||6-0||180||12/18/1997||2||No College|
|1||Albies, Ozzie||2B||5-8||165||01/07/1997||3||No College|
|50||Blevins, Jerry||RP||6-6||190||09/06/1983||13||No College|
|17||Camargo, Johan||3B||6-0||195||12/13/1993||3||No College|
|8||Culberson, Charlie||LF||6-1||200||04/10/1989||7||No College|
|25||Flowers, Tyler||C||6-4||260||01/24/1986||11||No College|
|26||Foltynewicz, Mike||SP||6-4||200||10/07/1991||6||No College|
|5||Freeman, Freddie||1B||6-5||220||09/12/1989||10||No College|
|54||Fried, Max||SP||6-4||190||01/18/1994||3||No College|
|77||Jackson, Luke||RP||6-2||210||08/24/1991||5||No College|
|14||Joyce, Matt||LF||6-2||200||08/03/1984||12||No College|
|22||Markakis, Nick||RF||6-1||210||11/17/1983||14||No College|
|16||McCann, Brian||C||6-3||215||02/20/1984||15||No College|
|15||Newcomb, Sean||RP||6-5||255||06/12/1993||3||No College|
|27||Riley, Austin||LF||6-3||240||04/02/1997||1||No College|
|40||Soroka, Michael||SP||6-4||195||No College|
|38||Swarzak, Anthony||RP||6-4||215||09/10/1985||10||No College|
|49||Teheran, Julio||SP||6-2||205||01/27/1991||9||No College|
|32||Tomlin, Josh||RP||6-1||190||10/19/1984||10||Texas Tech|
|62||Toussaint, Touki||RP||6-3||215||06/20/1996||2||No College|