|Team Outlook and Scouting Report|
NEXT 10 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY SUNNY
The D-Backs next 10 game forecast looks like 'partly sunny skies'. They have 2 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, 5 more games where they are favored by at least 53%, and just 1 game where they are a clear underdog. The rest of the games are toss ups.
The most likely scenario over the next 10 games is a record of 5-5 (24% chance). Their chances of winning 7 or more are 24.3%. At #9 in the league, they are behind the Cardinals by half a point. With a +0.88 advantage in projected wins over their next 10 games they have a good chance of improving their league seed. They are ahead of the Mets by half a point. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Mets. There is only a 0.47 advantage in projected wins over their next 10 games.
Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the D-Backs are the 12th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the D-Backs are playing 14 games, traveling 9849 miles crossing 11 time zones. They rank #16 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
Sportsline has a free pick on the Arizona Diamondbacks' next game. They are -125 favorites and there is slight value on them to win. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is a lot of value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.
SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B-
At 25-25 the D-Backs are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 23.8 wins. If you consider winning as a clear-cut underdog or winning by 2+ as a slight favorite, or by 5+ as a favorite then they have 18 good wins vs 8 bad losses. They have been better than expected on the road. Their 14-12- road record is +11% better than their expected win percentage. Losers of 5 in a row they have a 19.4% chance of seeing that extend to 7 straight, but they also have a 21% chance of turning things around and winning their next 3 games. The D-Backs should be a slightly above average team based on simulations where they won 51.8% of the simulations played vs every other team as if they were playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#12 in the league). They have moved up from #18 in the league back on 3/27.
Their record should be better. Their average run differential is +0.46 which ranks #5 in the NL, but their rank based on win percentage is #9. They are the #5 ranked team in run differential (based on all teams' road stats). This is the same ranking they have among home teams. Their average run differential in their past 12 games is +0.42 which ranks them #6 over this stretch, slightly worse than overall.
TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG
The D-Backs are contenders to win the NL, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 1% chance of making the World Series. On 3/29 they had a 0.4% chance before increasing to 7.8% on 5/6. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 2.1%. Before the start of their 5 game losing streak they were at 3.7%. They have a 1.4% chance of winning their division. They are not projected to finish in the Top 8 (#9 in the conference) and only have a 33% chance of making the playoffs. Based on the odds, they have a 6.2% chance of winning the NL (15/1) and a 3.2% chance of winning it all (30/1). In simulations they win the World Series 0.8% of the time.
Strength of Schedule Getting Much Easier
D-Backs' Season Forecast Changes
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|35||Andriese, Matt||RP||6-2||225||08/28/1989||5||No College|
|25||Bradley, Archie||RP||6-4||225||08/10/1992||5||No College|
|40||Chafin, Andrew||RP||6-2||225||06/17/1990||6||Kent State|
|1||Dyson, Jarrod||CF||5-10||165||08/15/1984||10||No College|
|5||Escobar, Eduardo||3B||5-10||185||01/05/1989||9||No College|
|21||Greinke, Zack||SP||6-2||200||10/21/1983||16||No College|
|66||Hirano, Yoshihisa||RP||6-1||185||03/08/1984||2||No College|
|56||Holland, Greg||RP||5-10||215||11/20/1985||9||No College|
|10||Jones, Adam||RF||6-2||215||08/01/1985||14||No College|
|18||Kelly, Carson||C||6-2||220||07/14/1994||4||No College|
|29||Kelly, Merrill||SP||6-2||190||10/14/1988||1||Arizona State|
|16||Locastro, Tim||CF||6-1||200||07/14/1992||3||No College|
|50||Lopez, Yoan||RP||6-3||185||01/02/1993||2||No College|
|4||Marte, Ketel||CF||6-1||165||10/12/1993||5||No College|
|30||McFarland, T.J.||RP||6-3||220||06/08/1989||7||No College|
|36||Murphy, John Ryan||C||5-11||205||05/13/1991||7||No College|
|38||Ray, Robbie||SP||6-2||195||10/01/1991||6||No College|
|19||Swihart, Blake||RF||6-1||200||04/03/1992||5||No College|
|15||Vargas, Ildemaro||3B||6-0||170||07/16/1991||3||No College|
|53||Walker, Christian||1B||6-0||220||03/28/1991||5||South Carolina|
|24||Weaver, Luke||SP||6-2||170||08/21/1993||4||Florida State|